25% of Microsoft Just Got Buyout Offers. Your Star Hires Are Next

Microsoft just extended buyout offers to 25 percent of its workforce—roughly 60,000 people worldwide—and veteran investor Howard Tullman says that number is a warning for every business owner who thinks their team is loyal for life.

Tullman, general managing partner at G2T3V and Chicago High Tech Investors, argues in a new expert opinion piece that top employees are permanently on the recruiting market, and that another one-off retention bonus won't change that.

"You can't outlaw poaching, you can't shame it out of existence, and you can't keep trying to paper over it with another one-off retention bonus," Tullman writes.

Why the best people leave first

The pattern is old, Tullman says. For decades, the moment a company hits its stride, the first arrivals aren't new customers—they're recruiters. Owners brag about deep talent and lifetime loyalty, then act shocked when key players walk.

Even strong employees aren't immune to the constant pitches and big-money promises, he notes. Entrepreneurs may believe their company is one big family; employees know better. As Tullman puts it, they may love the company, but it rarely loves them back. The Microsoft buyouts—60,000 offers last week—make that point for him.

What's driving the poaching boom

Two forces are at work, per Tullman: mounting pressure to hire qualified AI experts and senior technical talent, and what he bluntly calls "stupid VC cash" floating around. Together, they make poaching faster and, over the long run, cheaper than growing skills in-house over years.

The math of productivity sharpens the incentive. In physical labor, Tullman says, the best workers are twice as productive as ordinary ones. In creative work and building the future, the best people are ten times more valuable than the average. His summary: "One rabbit beats a dozen turtles."

What actually works instead of bonuses

Retention isn't an emergency measure, Tullman argues—it's a daily discipline that belongs in the business plan. Your best people are visible, valuable, and constantly told by outsiders how under-appreciated they must be. You can't kill those conversations. You can make staying the smartest, safest, most satisfying choice.

When team leaders get picked off, Tullman says, that's a lagging indicator you waited too long on the basics: trust, transparency, development, and real opportunity. Retention isn't about robbing the bank to pay people or building a higher wall. "It's about building a better place," he writes.

Step one: a written progress path

The most corrosive sentence a talented person can say, in Tullman's experience: they have no idea what their future at the company is. "The moment they're worried about that, they're already halfway out the door," he writes.

His fix is specific. Every key player needs a written, specific progress path—not a generic career ladder copied from an HR site, but a real plan with names, dates, and milestones. It should answer three questions:

• What new responsibilities does the person take on in the next 6, 12, and 18 months?
• What skills do they need to build?
• What has to be true for them to move to the next level of impact and compensation?

The takeaway

Tullman's core message: treat retention as a year-round operating function with documented plans per person, not a ransom negotiation triggered when a recruiter calls. With AI talent scarce and venture cash still chasing it, the companies that document their people's futures will lose fewer of them.