32 Countries Now Drive 95% of Global Growth, IMF Warns

Thirty-two countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 countries in April. That figure, published Tuesday in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, is the sharpest measure yet of how uneven the world economy has become.

The IMF slightly upgraded its global forecast at the same time. It now expects 3.1% growth this year, up from its July estimate of 3.0% but well below the 3.5% expansion recorded in 2025. Growth should rebound to 3.4% in 2027. The report landed as finance ministers and central bank governors gathered in Bangkok for the fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

What does the concentration of growth mean?

The mechanism behind the number is a split in demand. The IMF finds that the United States and China account for more than three-quarters of net demand for imports of computer chips and other AI-related equipment. Countries plugged into that demand chain keep growing. Countries exposed to the war-induced oil and gas shock fall behind.

"The global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength," the report says.

Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's director of research, put it more bluntly to reporters in Bangkok: "The outlook is highly uneven."

How hard does the AI boom cut both ways?

The IMF's economists credit the AI boom with offsetting damage from sharply higher energy prices. Oil prices have risen nearly 41% this year, averaging $96 a barrel. The forecast assumes oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume by March and that AI demand growth moderates.

The risks sit on the other side of the ledger. Athanasios Vamvakidis, deputy director at the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, flagged an AI-related correction in stock markets, rising bond yields, and cyberthreats that could disrupt financial systems.

The market gave a preview on Tuesday. Sell-offs in AI-related shares swept through Asia, and South Korea's Kospi sank as much as 7% before closing 5.5% lower.

Jobs are the longer-term concern. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called AI's effect on employment "a slow moving tsunami, but a tsunami nonetheless."

"The impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be around 40% — jobs either augmented or downgraded or eliminated. And we are already seeing some of this impact," she said.

Where does growth land this year?

The regional picture explains why the fund is worried about concentration:

• The United States holds steady at 2.3% growth in both 2026 and 2027.
• Advanced economies collectively grow 2.1% this year, up from 2.0% in 2025, then slow to 1.9%.
• Emerging markets and developing economies slow to 3.7% this year from 4.5% in 2025, before recovering to 4.4% next year.
• The Middle East and Central Asia contract this year, then recover to 6.3% growth in 2027.
• The 21-country eurozone grows a meager 1.1% this year and 1.2% in 2027.
• China expands 4.5%, down from 5% in 2025, in line with Beijing's official target.
• India remains the fastest-growing major economy at 7%, cooling from 7.7% last year.

Global inflation should run at 4.7% in 2026 and fall to 4.1% next year, the IMF said.

Why does debt top Georgieva's agenda?

Georgieva is pressing governments to repair their national finances before borrowing costs bite harder. Tenreyro made the same point: fixing budgets matters most at a time of high interest rates. The divide she described runs between countries insulated from the Iran war's energy shock and riding AI adoption, and those paying more for oil and gas while their growth stalls.

The IMF itself is a 191-nation lending organization that promotes growth, financial stability and poverty reduction, and its Bangkok meetings will test whether its members act on her warning or simply acknowledge it.

For investors and policymakers, the report's core message is structural: growth has not disappeared, but it has narrowed to a club of 32 economies whose exposure to chips and cheap energy now sets the pace for everyone else.