60% of Manitoba Small Business Owners Plan to Exit Within a Decade — Just 3% Have a Succession Plan

By Nathan Brooks

Six in 10 Manitoba small business owners plan to leave their businesses within the next decade. Only three in 100 have a plan for who takes over. That gap is the headline finding of a new report from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), released the week of Oct. 24, 2026, and the group says it should worry anyone who depends on a local shop, restaurant or service for a paycheque.

The CFIB's director for the Prairies and Northern Canada, Brianna Solberg, didn't mince words about the stakes.

"We will lose Manitoba businesses because of the difficulty in navigating ownership transitions or finding someone to take over the business," Solberg said.

Why are owners heading for the exit?

Mostly, they're just getting older. Retirement was the reason cited by 92% of Manitoba respondents. But a quarter said burnout or stress is pushing them out, and one in 10 pointed to the cost of running a business.

The problem is finding someone to hand the keys to. According to the report:

• 59% of owners say their biggest problem is finding a buyer or the right successor.
• About half say they have a hard time figuring out what their business is actually worth.
• 44% admit they don't know how to go about selling or transferring it.

For many owners, this is more than paperwork. Solberg said plenty are banking on a sale to fund their retirement.

"If they can't find a buyer, they may have to delay retiring or close the business altogether," she said.

Who buys, and what do owners want?

Nearly half of Manitoba owners expect to sell to someone outside the family, while about a quarter hope to sell to their own employees. Keeping it in the family is still common, though not dominant: 28% plan to sell to a relative and 19% plan to pass the business down.

Wherever the business goes, owners care deeply about what happens next. Eighty-nine percent said it matters that the business stays Canadian-owned. Even more said they want their employees protected and the business to keep serving the community.

What does this change for buyers and policymakers?

The report lands as more Canadian businesses have been shutting down or exiting than starting up since early 2024. Nationally, the CFIB puts the value of business assets at risk at more than a million dollars — a figure that balloons fast when you count the jobs attached to each closure.

The federation wants governments to step in. Its asks include:

• Do more to sell young entrepreneurs on buying an existing business rather than starting from scratch.
• Add a business succession stream to entrepreneur immigration programs.
• Lower the capital gains inclusion rate to 33% on the next $1 million in gains beyond the lifetime exemption.
• Push for wider use of Employee Ownership Trusts, a matchmaking marketplace that pairs retiring owners with screened buyers, modeled on a Quebec program.
• Help first-time business buyers get financing, much like existing programs for first-time homebuyers.

That last comparison is telling. If we treat succession like homeownership financing — a structured, supported transition — the 3% with a plan starts looking less like owner negligence and more like a missing market.

For practitioners, the signal is straightforward: there's a pipeline of motivated sellers coming, and most of them don't know their valuation or their process. Buyers who can bring both stand to gain.

Solberg's advice to owners was simple — don't leave it to the last minute.

"A succession plan is the best way for owners to protect what they've built, and the earlier they start, the more options they'll have," she said.

The alternative, on the CFIB's own numbers, is a wave of closures that takes jobs and community institutions down with them.