66 of 300 Major US Housing Markets Now See Falling Prices

Sixty-six of the nation's 300 largest housing markets posted year-over-year home price declines in the September 2025 to September 2026 window, up from 54 markets a month earlier, according to ResiClub's analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index. That's 22% of major markets falling, versus 18% in the August 2025 to August 2026 window.

Nationally, the picture is barely positive. U.S. home prices rose +1.0% year-over-year between September 2025 and September 2026 — a deceleration from the +1.3% year-over-year reading for August. The already soft market, ResiClub reports, is seeing another burst of softening amid the recent runup in long-term yields and mortgage rates.

Which markets are falling, and why?

The softness is not evenly spread. Markets where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels — pockets of the Northeast and Midwest — are still seeing modest year-over-year price growth.

The declines concentrate elsewhere:

• Texas, Florida, Washington and Colorado, where active inventory exceeds 2019 levels by a solid clip, are seeing material corrections, modest pullbacks, or flat pricing.
• Many of the softest markets sit in the Sun Belt and the Mountain West — the same regions where buyers have gained the most leverage since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out.

Much of this, ResiClub notes, is mean reversion. Many of these markets saw outsized price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local incomes. When pandemic-driven domestic migration slowed and mortgage rates rose in 2022, markets like Tampa and Austin had to rely on local income levels to support frothy prices.

Supply compounded the problem. Sun Belt builders, often willing to cut prices or offer affordability incentives to keep sales moving, cooled the resale market too. Buyers who once targeted existing homes opted for new construction with better deals — which pushed resale inventory even higher over the past few years.

How wide is the gap between winners and losers?

Of the 300 largest metros, 234 are still posting year-over-year increases. But ResiClub flags a catch: most of those "nominal gains" run below both income growth and consumer price growth, meaning economists would classify them as "real" — inflation-adjusted — home price declines.

The spread between the strongest and weakest markets is stark:

• Hartford, CT: home prices sit +28.6% above their 2022 peak.
• Austin, TX: home prices sit -28.1% below their 2022 peak.

ResiClub's read on the data: the "range" between the strongest and weakest metros is fairly normal by historical standards, but the "bifurcation" — the share of markets rising versus falling — is wider than normal, given that national appreciation is barely above +0.0%. The longer some markets stay in the rising camp while others fall, the wider the gulf grows between resilient and weak metros.

What happens next?

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped back above 7.00%, landing on top of an already strained affordability environment and a post-boom cyclical cooling period. ResiClub's recommendation for the months ahead: closely monitor local active inventory.

One more caveat from the data: when ResiClub ran its historical chart across the 200 largest markets — some ranked 201 to 300 lack complete data back to 2000 — and weighted by population, the housing market looks slightly weaker than the headline chart suggests. Among just the 50 largest housing markets, 17, or 34%, are currently posting negative year-over-year price growth.

The takeaway in plain words: national numbers still show growth, but more than a fifth of major markets — and a third of the biggest ones — are already going the other way.