98% of Economists Say Policy Uncertainty Will Slow Growth — That's the Real Midterm Risk, Says Jeff Raikes

By Grace Kim

Ninety-eight percent of economists expect rising policy uncertainty to slow U.S. economic growth — separate from the effects of any actual policy. That figure, from a March 2025 survey by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, sits at the center of a new Fortune commentary by Jeff Raikes, former Microsoft executive, who argues the biggest business risk in this November's midterms isn't which party wins. It's whether the rules hold.

Election Day is Nov. 3.

Raikes opens with a farmer's frame. He grew up on a farm near Ashland, Nebraska, where his family planned around things it couldn't control — weather, crop prices, seed and fertilizer costs. But he draws a hard line between uncertainty about conditions and uncertainty about rules.

"There's a difference between not knowing what the weather will bring and not knowing what the rules will be," Raikes writes. Nebraska farmers have spent much of the past two years relearning that lesson: even after a deal brought Chinese buyers back, the tariff fight over soybeans remains unsettled, and prices slipped to a two-month low this month.

What does uncertainty actually cost?

The economics are direct. A company weighing a new plant, product line or hiring class is betting on the future, Raikes writes. A change in tax rates or regulation changes the math — but the company can recalculate. A change nobody saw coming, or that may reverse next year, leaves nothing to calculate. "So the sensible move is to wait," he writes.

At Microsoft, Raikes made product bets that took years to pay off and hiring decisions running well past the next quarter. The company couldn't know what future administrations or Congresses would do, but it could reasonably expect laws to be enforced and rule changes to come through predictable institutions.

"Business can adapt to either party's agenda," he writes. "It struggles when it can't tell which rules will hold, who will enforce them, and whether a change will come through a process anyone can anticipate."

PwC recently advised CEOs to expect continued volatility whatever the midterm outcomes, with trade and tariff policy set largely by executive action. Raikes reads that as a reason to care more, not less: decisions made by executive order can be reversed the same way, by this president or the next. The Supreme Court stepped in in February, ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump that the emergency-powers law the president relied on doesn't authorize tariffs. But Congress, Raikes notes, is the institution built to set lasting rules on trade and spending — and how well it does that job is part of what's on the ballot.

Why the economy's 2.2% growth doesn't settle it

The temptation to sit the election out is real. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports the U.S. economy grew 2.2% in the second quarter, driven by consumer spending, business investment and exports. Raikes concedes business leaders have good reasons to stay quiet — customers, employees and shareholders hold diverse political views.

Still, he writes, two things on the ballot matter to business regardless of party: whether Congress does its job as a check on executive power, and whether Americans can trust the integrity of their elections and the people who administer them.

Two actions business leaders can take now

Raikes puts two concrete moves on the table before Nov. 3:

• Make it easy for employees to vote. Offer paid time off or flexible schedules to vote, plus paid leave for poll workers. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation's Civic Time Off initiative, focused this year on recruiting nonpartisan poll workers, offers a starting point. Managers should know their state's voting-leave laws.
• Speak up for election integrity. Leaders should state publicly that they support free and fair elections, the officials administering them, lawful certification of votes — and that their companies will respect the results.

One entry point is the Advancing Liberty Coalition, anchored by Voting Rights Lab, an organization the Raikes Foundation supports. Its members include business leaders, faith groups, veterans and military families, disability advocates and community organizers.

The stakes for election workers are concrete: 32% of local election officials told the Brennan Center this year they had faced threats, harassment or abuse because of their job. A statement alone won't solve that, Raikes writes, but the collective voice of business leaders carries weight.

Back in Nebraska, the harvest is winding down and farmers are planning next spring's planting. Raikes closes on that parallel: farmers can't choose the weather, but business leaders can help decide whether the rules hold. "Our responsibility doesn't end on November 3," he writes. "Neither does our stake in American democracy."