After a Big Bitcoin Jump, Dominance Rose Again Just 47% of the Time

By Amara Osei

Bitcoin dominance rose the following week after 47% of its big upward moves, below the 57% rate after ordinary weeks, according to SignalPilotLabs’ analysis of 459 weekly closes. SignalPilotLabs published the analysis on TradingView, using the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D series from January 2018 through October 18, 2026.

SignalPilotLabs described the measure as Bitcoin’s share of the entire crypto market’s value. It defined a “big week” as a weekly move of at least one percentage point. It then counted whether the next week continued that direction and compared those results with ordinary weeks.

SignalPilotLabs noted the altcoin-season shorthand: some market participants read a jump in Bitcoin’s market share as the end of an altcoin season and a drop as its start. Its analysis said that, inside one week, a jump simply means altcoins lagged Bitcoin.

What did the 459-week test show?

SignalPilotLabs counted 78 big upward moves in Bitcoin dominance. Its analysis found that dominance rose again the following week 47% of the time, compared with 57% after a week that moved less than one point. That comparison means the base rate for an upward close was higher after an ordinary week.

SignalPilotLabs summarized the result: “A jump did not start a run.” The finding undercut any simple reading of a one-point rise as the start of sustained Bitcoin leadership. The source treated the result as evidence against using one weekly move to predict the next.

Why did drops appear more persistent?

SignalPilotLabs found that, after 65 big downward moves, dominance fell again the next week 57% of the time. It put the ordinary-week comparison at 43%. The analysis then tested the drop result against 10,000 shuffled sequences of weeks.

The shuffles matched the drop-continuation result only 1.9% of the time, according to SignalPilotLabs. SignalPilotLabs said it set the bar for judging the result before running the tests. It concluded that, by that bar, the drop pattern was no reliable rule.

SignalPilotLabs found that the record split sharply by period. It said a big drop from 2018 to 2021 carried on 20 percentage points more often than usual. From 2022 onward, drops carried on 8.6 percentage points less often than usual.

What changed in 2026?

From January through mid-October 2026, Bitcoin dominance did not move a full point in any week, SignalPilotLabs reported. Its weekly close stayed within a narrow 58.4% to 60.9% range throughout that period. The last big week before that stretch came in August 2025.

SignalPilotLabs’ counts show that big weeks clustered earlier in the sample. It counted 30 big weeks in 2018 and 28 in 2021.

The source’s full weekly chart runs from 2018 to October 2026, with big upward weeks marked in green and big downward weeks in red beneath the candles. The markers cluster in 2018 and 2021 and stop after August 2025. The 2026 section is shaded to show that no week moved a full point.

What should traders conclude?

SignalPilotLabs advised: “Don’t read one big dominance week as the start of an altcoin season, or the end of one.” It said that, since 2022, the next week’s direction had been close to a coin toss. The analysis therefore offers no reliable rule for turning one weekly Bitcoin dominance move into a broad altcoin trade.

SignalPilotLabs says the data cover one measure of the crypto market through weekly closes. The analysis describes past behavior and does not identify which coins might lead an altcoin season.

The source also says the series does not establish what Bitcoin dominance does over several months. It labeled the work observations, not recommendations.

SignalPilotLabs’ analysis points to weak directional persistence after a big weekly move, especially since 2022. For the next weekly close, that finding argues against assuming one move in Bitcoin’s market share will continue.