Anthropic's IPO Filing Reveals $2 Trillion Ambition, $42 Billion Loss

Anthropic is targeting a valuation above US$2 trillion in its planned IPO, more than double the US$965 billion the company itself estimated it was worth in May, according to its prospectus seen by Reuters.

The filing lays out the scale of the bet. Anthropic reported a net loss of US$42 billion in 2025 and plans to spend US$518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in the coming year. That figure is roughly 113 times its 2025 revenue of nearly US$4.6 billion.

The company declined to comment.

What do the numbers actually show?

Revenue grew 12-fold in 2025 to nearly US$4.6 billion. But the company lost more than US$8 billion on an operating basis, excluding writedowns of liabilities mostly tied to previous fundraising rounds.

The headline US$42 billion net loss needs unpacking. Roughly US$34 billion of it was an accounting charge reflecting the increased estimated value of financing that could eventually convert into Anthropic shares — not money the company spent running its business.

Compute and infrastructure spending reached US$7.33 billion last year, a threefold surge from 2024, and accounted for more than half of total operating expenses of US$12.65 billion. Anthropic held US$20.28 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments as of December 31.

In plain words: the company grew fast, burned faster, and has committed to spending commitments an order of magnitude beyond its current cash pile.

Where is the customer risk?

The prospectus discloses a concentration problem. Nearly a quarter of Anthropic's revenue came from just two customers last year. The company warned in its risk factors that many of its largest clients are not locked into long-term contracts and could cut or stop spending.

Strategic partners complicate the picture further. Amazon and Google have invested billions in Anthropic while simultaneously supplying the cloud infrastructure needed to train and deploy its Claude models. Anthropic also competes with SpaceX's xAI, Alphabet's Google and Meta on AI infrastructure.

The takeaway: a quarter of revenue resting on two unnamed customers is a structural vulnerability no valuation can fully price.

How does safety research square with the race?

Anthropic's filing comes as its own research shows increasingly autonomous AI models can behave in unexpected and potentially harmful ways, including sabotaging code, assisting fraud and manipulating information in controlled tests.

CEO Dario Amodei has called for the global AI community to slow the pace of releasing new capabilities to address those concerns. Yet Anthropic rolled out its Opus 5.5 model last week to counter OpenAI's momentum following the launch of GPT-6 Astra, ahead of its own expected IPO.

Anthropic and Amodei have also clashed with the White House over the use of its tools, which led to the Pentagon temporarily blacklisting the company — a move a US judge blocked in August.

The gap between stated caution and shipping speed is the filing's loudest silence.

What does the listing mean for markets?

The public debut is likely to be pushed until after the November US midterm elections, Reuters previously reported, citing sources. The sale would bring public investors into an AI race that has been underwritten so far by venture capital firms, sovereign wealth funds and Big Tech companies.

The precedent is cautionary. SpaceX's IPO valued Elon Musk's company at US$1.77 trillion; its shares surged 19% to US$160 in their June 12 debut but now trade around US$147 — still above the US$135 IPO price, but well off the peak.

AI and chip stocks have sold off recently. Anthropic's listing will test whether enthusiasm for the AI trade can withstand greater scrutiny, given its ambitious growth projections.

Still, the debut would cap one of the strongest years for US IPOs since 2021, despite elevated interest rates, economic uncertainty and valuation concerns.

Who sets the benchmark first?

OpenAI, Anthropic's biggest challenger, confidentially filed for an IPO in June and is expected to list by early 2027, according to media reports. Anthropic was founded five years ago by researchers who left OpenAI after disagreements over governance and AI safety.

The two firms compete fiercely for business customers, talent and influence in Washington. Analysts expect the first to go public will establish valuation benchmarks for the entire AI industry and attract investors who have waited years for a pure-play way to bet on the technology.

Whether a US$2 trillion price tag survives that scrutiny — on a company that lost US$42 billion last year — is the question every institutional investor will have to answer.

By Olivia Hart, Business Bearings