Anthropic's Trillion-Dollar IPO Could Rescue a Stalling 2026 Market

Gravitics Holdings cut its IPO size by 60% on Tuesday, one day after Kepuni Holdings pulled a $15 million Nasdaq listing — the latest cracks in a 2026 new-issuance market that now hinges on Anthropic.

The damage wasn't confined to deal structuring. South Korea's Elice Group fell 32% in its first trading session on jitters around AI-related stocks. Dealogic data show it was the country's worst-ever debut for a company that raised more than $100 million.

These are small deals in the context of 2026. SpaceX raised a record-breaking $75 billion in its June offering. But the failures compound a string of recent disappointments. Oura, the smart-ring maker behind one of the season's most anticipated IPOs, shelved its plans in September just hours before pricing shares.

What's actually breaking the IPO market?

Jay Ritter, director of the University of Florida's IPO Initiative and an authority known as "Mr. IPO," puts the blame squarely on valuations.

"Some of those companies have pulled their IPOs, rather than accepting a less optimistic valuation than they had hoped to get," Ritter told Fortune's Morgan Chittum. "You're just asking too much. It's not that you've got a bad business model. It's a question of price."

The stumble comes despite a strong first half. Deal proceeds totaled roughly $137 billion across the first six months of the year, according to SEC market statistics, with SpaceX doing much of the lifting.

Why is Anthropic the market's last hope?

Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, argues one public debut could restart the machine: Anthropic's.

"There's no question, a successful Anthropic IPO would be a huge win for the rest of the market," Kennedy said, pointing to the deal's potentially landmark size.

The numbers justify that framing. A long-time Anthropic investor, who asked not to be named, told Fortune's Shawn Tully he expects shares to be priced at roughly $1.8 trillion. That sits below the Claude creator's $2 trillion target, but the investor predicts a post-IPO trading value of up to $2.4 trillion. That would top SpaceX's $2.1 trillion market cap at the end of its first trading day in June.

Kennedy sees a mechanical effect beyond the headline. "When investors make money with IPOs, they begin to put that money back into work on future deals," he said.

What did the new prospectus reveal?

The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Anthropic disclosed an $80.7 billion net loss for the first six months of 2026 in a new draft prospectus. Revenue growth ran in the opposite direction: roughly $16.3 billion in the first half of the year, up from $1.1 billion in the year-ago period.

Anthropic hasn't said when it will file, and the deal faces open risk factors — that loss among them.

Is the timing still realistic?

The clock matters. The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have both reported that Anthropic is preparing for a potential November IPO, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. With that timeline in mind, Kennedy says a filing could come out as soon as Friday.

Any delay shrinks the window for a 2026 debut — and for other companies to follow. With midterm elections and the holiday season approaching, more prospective issuers could opt to wait until early 2027.

That would push back a rebound in deal flow but not necessarily kill it. Kennedy said the benefits of a successful Anthropic listing could stretch well into next year.

"With such a large deal, I think this has legs," he said. "It can help 2027 activity."