Apple Slides as Margin Forecast Misses: What Analysts Say Next

Apple shares fell 1.9% to $331.90 on Tuesday, extending a drop of nearly 2% from Monday, after the company guided its gross margin to 45%–46% for the current quarter — short of the roughly 47% analysts had projected. The culprit, according to Apple itself: an "unprecedented" jump in memory-chip prices plus the cost of ramping up its Siri AI assistant.

The margin warning landed on top of an otherwise solid report. Revenue came in at $114.5 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter ended September, with earnings per share of $2.10 — both beating Wall Street consensus. It wasn't enough. Traders sold the stock anyway, and analysts spent Tuesday mapping out how long the pressure could last.

How bad is the margin squeeze?

Gross margin for the September quarter came in at 47.9%, down from the previous quarter. Apple's own guidance implies another leg lower: 45% to 46% for the December quarter, on an expectation that memory costs stay high for a prolonged stretch, alongside spending tied to the Siri rollout.

Evercore ISI's team, led by Amit Daryanani, put it plainly in a Monday note. They foresee Apple navigating a "choppy" gross-margin environment right up until memory prices stabilize or fall. They're also watching for hard evidence that Siri can actually be monetized — a question Apple hasn't yet answered with numbers.

The takeaway: this is a component-cost story, not a demand story. Until memory prices crack, the margin math stays tight.

What's happening with services?

Apple projected services-revenue growth of just 8% to 9% for the current quarter, well below the 12% analysts were modeling. That's a sharp deceleration for the segment Wall Street treats as Apple's profit engine.

The fourth-quarter numbers show the trend already building. Services revenue hit an all-time high of $31.57 billion, but that represented growth of only 9.8%, down from 12.1% in the prior quarter. Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Michael Ng, flagged the slowdown — driven in part by the App Store — even as they came away with increased confidence in the iPhone refresh cycle. Apple also reported lower-than-hoped-for revenue in its wearables, home and accessories segment.

Could the slowdown stretch into 2026?

Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring and his team think it might. They wrote that while Apple has multiple potential tailwinds that could ease pressure on services, the slowdown could extend into the March quarter.

That's the timeline investors now have to price in: two Wall Street banks see margin and services pressure persisting for at least two more quarters, with relief hinging on memory prices turning lower and proof that Siri can pull its weight.