ASEAN+3 Supplies Almost Half of World's AI-Enabling Exports, AMRO Warns of Timing Risks

ASEAN+3 economies accounted for almost half of global exports of AI-enabling goods in 2025, and those products drove roughly two-thirds of the region's merchandise export growth in the first half of 2026. That is the headline finding of a commentary published Thursday by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). The boom supports growth, AMRO says, but three timing mismatches — power, productivity and finance — could hurt the region if expectations outrun fundamentals.

How big is the AI windfall for ASEAN+3?

AMRO projects regional growth of 4.1 percent in both 2026 and 2027, supported in part by AI-related investment and demand. The region has become a major beneficiary of rising global demand for semiconductors, advanced electronics and digital infrastructure. That demand provided an important source of export growth at a time of higher energy costs and persistent trade uncertainty.

The concentration cuts both ways. What AI demand gives to export growth, a reversal could take away just as quickly.

Why does electricity pose the first risk?

AI investment can scale up fast. Electricity systems cannot. New generation capacity and transmission networks require years of planning, regulatory approvals, financing and construction, AMRO notes.

The risk runs in both directions. A power shortage would raise operating costs or constrain data centres. Overbuilding against optimistic demand forecasts would leave economies with expensive, underused assets.

Malaysia shows the scale of the problem. Data center power supply applications had exceeded 11 gigawatts as of December 2024 — roughly 40 percent of Peninsular Malaysia's entire generating capacity, according to AMRO. The agency urges policymakers to align power infrastructure with realistic demand projections, keep supply reliable and avoid excess capacity.

Will productivity gains keep pace with investment?

Chip plants, data centers and computing equipment generate orders and revenue quickly. Productivity gains do not. They depend on changes in business processes, workforce skills and organisational structures across industries — adjustments AMRO describes as neither automatic nor immediate.

The region's readiness varies sharply. On the International Monetary Fund's AI Preparedness Index, scored 0 to 100, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong scored above 70, placing them alongside the United States. Six of AMRO's 14 member economies, including the Philippines and Vietnam, scored below 50.

AMRO stresses the gap does not mean AI investment is misguided. But it creates uncertainty over when returns materialise and how widely the benefits spread. Economies with lower readiness will likely wait longer for investment to translate into broad productivity gains.

What could trigger a financial shock?

Financial markets price future earnings far faster than infrastructure gets built or productivity arrives. A revision to earnings expectations could shift financial conditions suddenly, even if the underlying technological transformation stays intact.

Recent volatility in global AI and semiconductor stocks illustrates how fast valuations can reprice. For ASEAN+3, the exposure extends beyond tech companies: changes in AI investment plans could hit semiconductor exports, equipment orders, corporate earnings, equity prices and cross-border capital flows at the same time. Weaker exports would depress revenues, while falling valuations and tighter financing could choke further investment — economies tied to the same technology cycle could adjust simultaneously.

AMRO's scenario analysis quantifies the stakes. If US technology investment returned to its more moderate 2024 growth pace rather than its recent momentum, ASEAN+3 growth in 2027 could fall 1.5 percentage points below the baseline. AMRO flags this as scenario analysis, not a forecast, and does not claim AI investment is inherently unsustainable.

What does AMRO want policymakers to do?

The agency sets out three priorities:

• Infrastructure: expand essential power capacity in line with realistic demand, with public investment and regulation supporting reliable supply while private investors bear appropriate commercial risks.
• Productivity: strengthen workforce skills, push technology adoption among smaller businesses and spread innovation beyond leading tech exporters.
• Financial surveillance: monitor vulnerabilities beyond direct tech exposure — through suppliers, infrastructure financing, equity markets and non-bank intermediaries including insurers and private credit funds.

AMRO says supervisors should plan for a common shock hitting several channels at once, amplifying the regional impact. It also backs regional cooperation to identify shared vulnerabilities and exchange information, while noting each economy must still assess its own exposure and keep policy flexibility for surprises.

The agency credits Asia's manufacturing capabilities, technological expertise and production networks as genuine grounds for optimism. Yet it warns sustaining that advantage requires more than attracting investment and adding computing capacity. The boom's success, AMRO concludes, depends not only on how fast investment grows but on how effectively the region converts technological advances into lasting economic value while managing the infrastructure, productivity and financial risks that come with them.