Aurora Targets 30,000 Driverless Trucks and $5 Billion by 2030

Aurora told investors last week it expects more than 30,000 self-driving trucks generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030. That plan looks aggressive against the company's own forecast of just 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate at the end of 2026.

CFO David Maday argues the target is smaller than it sounds.

"While 30,000 kind of feels like a lot — and it does in the autonomy space for sure — in terms of trucks relative to the overall market, it's kind of pretty small," Maday told TechCrunch in a recent interview. The four major truck manufacturers produce between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks a year, he noted. "I don't think it's aspirational," he added. "I think we can do it."

Investors have not embraced the vision. Aurora's shares have slid since its annual analyst and investor day on September 23. On Monday, the stock closed down 12.42%, at $5.29.

The business model shift

Maday says the big "unlock" for Aurora starts in 2027 and accelerates from there. The company expects to go from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to more than 1,000 a year later.

Today, Aurora runs what it calls a transportation-as-a-service business — a proof-of-concept model capped at about 500 trucks. Aurora owns and operates the self-driving trucks and charges customers, including Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner, about $2 per mile, a rate that includes a fuel surcharge. That works out to roughly the same pricing as other carriers' typical rates.

The real shift comes next year, when Aurora begins moving to a driver-as-a-service model. Customers will buy the self-driving trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee of about $0.85 for the autonomy technology. Customers will own and maintain the trucks, while Aurora maintains the self-driving system and its hardware.

Moving trucks off Aurora's balance sheet is critical to scaling — and it is likely what investors are watching. Aurora expects to reach breakeven gross margins, meaning revenue would cover the direct costs of running the trucks, on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with around 500 trucks on the road.

Third-generation hardware

The next leap comes at the end of 2027 with Aurora's third-generation hardware — the sensors, computers, and other equipment that let trucks drive themselves. The kits will be mass-produced by partner Aumovio, formerly known as Continental. Aumovio is not just engineering and manufacturing the hardware; it is also financing it for Aurora, easing the financial burden on the self-driving truck company. Aumovio will also service and repair the kits for customers.

Aurora plans to expand geographically at the same time. By 2030, the company expects to grow beyond a few states in the South to the vast majority of the continental U.S., according to Maday.

"By 2028, I expect that our cost structures are going to be really outstanding, that's why you see our gross margin starting to take off," Maday said. He confirmed Aurora still plans to eventually enter the robotaxi market. "Once you get to that point, I think going into ride hailing is fine," he said.

Whether investors buy the 2030 math may depend on execution over the next 18 months: hitting the 200-truck mark in 2026, then proving the asset-light subscription model and breakeven gross margins can arrive on schedule in 2027.