Aviva Chief Warns 115,000 New Homes Headed for Flood Zones

Aviva chief executive Amanda Blanc says 115,000 new homes will be built in flood zones over the next decade if current building patterns hold — properties she warns could become uninsurable.

Blanc made the comments in an interview with the BBC's Big Boss Interview podcast, telling presenter Sean Farrington that the risk of flooding is "absolutely increasing." England, she said, is "for sure" building homes today that might be uninsurable at some point in the future.

"That doesn't seem to me to make sense. We need to think about where those homes are being built," Blanc told the BBC.

The numbers behind her warning are stark. The Environment Agency estimates about 6.3 million homes and businesses in England are at risk of flooding. Aviva's own research found that one in nine homes built between 2022 and 2024 sits in areas at medium to high risk of flooding.

The outlook worsens over time. According to Aviva's research, nearly a third of new homes built in 2024 will face some flooding risk by 2050, and one in seven will be at medium to high risk as extreme weather becomes more acute.

The Met Office underscored that trajectory earlier this year. It estimated that at current levels of global warming, record-breaking wet winters like the UK experienced in 2023-2024 have shifted from once-in-80-year events to once-in-20-year events.

Blanc said the solution starts with planning decisions. "It's very well known where these flooding areas are. Let's think very carefully about homes that are being built," she said.

She also flagged construction on land bordering flood zones, arguing it requires a different approach. "You can do all sorts of different things to your property to make it more or less vulnerable to flood," Blanc said.

The BBC said it approached the government for comment.

A warning on Budget speculation

Blanc's comments went well beyond flood risk. She urged the government to avoid policy "kite flying" ahead of Chancellor John Healey's first Budget on 28 October.

Aviva is a major UK private pension provider, and Blanc said speculation over the last couple of Budgets about changes to pensions triggered a significant increase in withdrawals.

"Effectively we saw in the last year 30 times the normal withdrawal from pensions that we would normally see, which is clearly something which customers may regret afterwards because once you take your tax-free lump sum out, you can't put it back in," she said.

"So we would say be very, very thoughtful about the things that you are testing, thinking about."

Policy announcements ahead of the Budget have so far included a scheme to help first-time buyers onto the property ladder and a commitment from Healey to deliver a "new age of industrialisation" for the UK.

Capital ready for infrastructure

Blanc said Aviva stands "ready with capital" to invest in UK infrastructure. The company already invests more than £100bn in the UK, of which £35bn goes into infrastructure — from hospitals to schools to windfarms.

"We've got that capital. We want to invest, we're a big UK employer. We want to invest in UK infrastructure. It provides good returns for our pension holders and for the members of those pension schemes," she said. But she added that detail is needed to turn intentions into reality.

Asked about the debate over the pension triple lock — which raises the state pension by the highest of average wage increases, inflation or 2.5% — Blanc said it was not for her to say what should happen.

She did warn, though, that lower annual pension increases under any change to the triple lock would carry knock-on effects.

"If you've got a lower state pension then you need a higher private pension, don't you? So you need to think about that balance," Blanc said.

Her flood-risk warning lands as insurers, planners and ministers face the same arithmetic: every home built in a flood zone today is a future claim, a future premium dispute, or a property no insurer will cover at all. Whether the 28 October Budget or planning policy responds will determine how many of the projected 115,000 homes ever get built on that risky ground.