Behind Closed Doors, CEOs Deliver Verdict: Trump Policies Are Failing

Two-thirds of CEOs surveyed at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute's forum in Washington this week said U.S. tariffs have damaged their businesses, and the near-unanimous verdict from more than 100 top executives was that President Trump's policies are not working.

The gathering, the 155th held by the institute, brought together Fortune 500 chief executives with senators from both parties and senior Trump administration officials under Chatham House rules, with direct quotes off the record. Many of the executives are Republicans who have supported the president out of patriotic duty and dismay over some Democratic policies. Their criticism, according to the forum's organizers, was grounded in business results rather than personal politics or industry sector.

The executives estimate that 80% of tariff costs have been split equally between domestic firms and U.S. consumers, with foreign counterparts absorbing the remainder. Companies have tried to contain the damage by rerouting supply chains, reworking operations, pausing hiring, and conducting large-scale layoffs. Their options are narrowing as pre-tariff inventories run down.

One CEO of a major U.S. manufacturing company told the group: "If the U.S. government wants to help protect certain industries, they need to help those industries be successful. It is not just putting a bunch of tariffs in place and assuming those industries are going to get moved to the U.S. There have to be incentives … Consumers want products to be low-cost … power tools, hand tools, clothing, sneakers … Does it really make sense to be manufacturing all that in the United States? I do not believe it does."

The list of companies that have publicly described similar tariff dilemmas spans Gap, Ford, Stanley Black & Decker, Nike, Conagra, Procter & Gamble, Home Depot, Best Buy, Macy's, Target, and Walmart. The organizers noted that the Business Roundtable has stayed conspicuously quiet. Inflation, they observed, has reversed the downward trend Trump inherited from the Biden administration, while the labor market keeps weakening.

Investment stalled

The tariff offensive is not producing the domestic investment the White House expected. Fewer than half of the CEOs surveyed said they had increased investments in U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure since "Liberation Day," and even fewer expected those capital commitments to deliver material results.

The organizers also flagged the question of which headline investment announcements are genuinely new, pointing to the failed $10 billion Foxconn factory in Wisconsin from Trump's first term. Apple's $500 billion commitment has been reported as largely money already in the books, and SoftBank and OpenAI pledges have encountered indefinite delays.

A well-known business leader with a significant manufacturing footprint in the U.S. and abroad said the company can offset only some tariff costs through operating efficiencies and tax benefits from the "One Big Beautiful Bill." The cost of tariffs still far exceeds the benefits the administration has provided, the executive said, drawing murmurs of agreement.

Legal risk compounds the paralysis. Nearly three-quarters of executives surveyed said the courts are right that Trump's tariffs are illegal as implemented. A Supreme Court ruling in agreement would throw corporate planning into disarray once again.

One manufacturing CEO whose products are primarily made in America described the effect: "I am always worried about what the government is going to do next. It seems like the tariffs have simmered down, but in reality, where manufacturers import from is Mexico, Canada, and China. None of those [trade deals] is settled. So, if you want to make a change in your business, you recognize tariffs are going to change in 90 days or 120 days. And I don't want to look like a fool! So, I'm going to hold back."

Pressure on the Fed

The discontent extends beyond trade. More than three-quarters of CEOs said Trump is not acting in America's best interests by pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. A majority said the president has done lasting damage to the Fed's independence, and over 60% blamed his recent politicization of the institution. The same day as the forum, Powell described a "low firing, low hiring environment" in the labor market.

The head of a major U.S. multinational investment bank said the administration's stance undermines its own dollar agenda: "All of them are in service of keeping the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency … The only thing that I have not been able to square with this administration is the attack on the Fed's independence. That is such a critical part of making sure that the U.S. dollar remains the world's reserve currency, because people trust that the Fed's independence is the one area that is outside the presidential influence."

Credit, and a warning

The forum was not uniformly negative. Executives congratulated Trump where results are tangible, echoing Tim Cook of Apple and Wendell Weeks of Corning, who credited the president on CNBC's Mad Money for encouraging their $2.5 billion Kentucky partnership.

But the CEOs firmly disapproved of Washington's market interventions: equity stakes in Intel and MP Materials, the 15% revenue-sharing agreement on Nvidia's and AMD's China-sourced revenues, and the golden share attached to the Nippon Steel–U.S. Steel deal. Many felt the actions resemble China's state capitalism more than American capitalism. At the March forum, 85% of business leaders called U.S. government uncertainty a gift to China; this week they said that has proved true over the past six months.

On foreign policy, over three-quarters of CEOs now see relations with Russia and Ukraine as worse since Trump took office, and a similar proportion said the momentum from the Abraham Accords is at risk. The executives' dismay tracks with national polling: Trump's approval ratings are worse than any other president's at this point in their tenure since George W. Bush.

After nine months in office, the gathered CEOs want a return to balance of powers, stronger alliances, and an end to bullying countries, cities, and companies into uneconomical compromises. One commenter at the forum compared MAGA to the Maoist movement — and drew no outcry of disagreement.