Bettors Wager Nearly $190,000 on Which Trump Official Quits First

Traders have pushed nearly $190,000 through a Polymarket bet on which Trump Cabinet official leaves first, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth leading at roughly 31% as of Friday morning.

The market opened as prediction platforms cashed in their most convincing electoral performance to date. Bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket correctly favored Democrats to win both chambers of Congress, and they proved highly accurate in forecasting several key Senate races. That record helped boost the platforms' reputation for accuracy — and it sent traders hunting for their next target the moment the midterms ended.

That target is the Trump Administration itself.

What happens now that Democrats control Congress?

Incoming Democratic majorities are promising to investigate many aspects of the Trump Administration, from the war in Iran to allegations of corruption. Traders are getting ahead of those probes by betting on who could be the next to leave Trump's Cabinet.

As of Friday morning, the Polymarket odds stood as follows:

• Pete Hegseth, Defense Secretary — roughly 31%, the market leader
• Susie Wiles, White House chief of staff — 24%
• Marco Rubio, Secretary of State — 8%
• No Cabinet departure before 2027 — about 27%

That last number matters. Traders put better-than-a-quarter odds that nobody leaves at all before 2027, a reminder that the market prices turmoil and stability at the same time.

Why does Pete Hegseth lead the market?

Hegseth's 31% share reflects his role in the Iran war, which has fueled open calls for his ouster. The House could vote as early as next week on articles of impeachment accusing him of waging the war without congressional approval.

Republican Rep. Thomas Massie plans to revive that impeachment effort after the GOP's midterm losses, giving the Hegseth market a hard deadline to trade against. A House vote within days would turn a prediction-market position into a fast-moving bet on real political events.

Why is Susie Wiles under pressure?

Wiles has become a target as Republicans search for someone to blame for their midterm defeats. Her most prominent critic so far is former Trump aide Caroline Sunshine, who called for Wiles's resignation in a Fox News interview on Wednesday.

"Her campaign skills have not translated into governing," Sunshine said.

That quote captures the traders' case against Wiles: she ran winning campaigns, and the midterms broke the other way. At 24%, the market treats her exit as nearly as likely as Hegseth's.

Where does Marco Rubio stand?

Rubio's position is more complicated. He faces questions about both his future in the administration and a possible 2028 presidential bid.

He has discussed stepping down with White House officials, who asked him to stay, Bloomberg reported. But Rubio publicly rejected the exit speculation this week, telling The New York Times that serving through the end of Trump's term has "always been my plan."

The market isn't fully buying it. His 8% odds trail both Hegseth and Wiles, but the fact that he's traded at all reflects the Bloomberg reporting on his conversations with the White House — and the persistent 2028 question hanging over his tenure.

What does this say about prediction markets?

The pivot from election forecasting to Cabinet speculation shows how quickly these platforms move to their next liquidity pool. Kalshi and Polymarket built credibility by calling both chambers of Congress correctly and nailing several Senate races; they're now spending that credibility on a market with a 27% chance of paying nothing before 2027.

With impeachment articles against Hegseth possibly reaching the House floor next week, traders won't wait long for their first real test.

By Amara Osei, Business Bearings