Bitcoin Loses $14.2B in Stablecoin Fuel, Slides Under Buyer Cost

Stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion in the 30 days through Nov 9, the largest contraction since the Terra collapse in June 2022, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The firm warned the crypto market now has "less fuel for a rally," and bitcoin slid under the price most recent buyers paid.

The mechanics are simple. Stablecoins fund most crypto purchases, so a smaller pool means fewer ready buyers. ETF money is leaving at the same time. Glassnode said roughly $1.6 billion has exited US spot bitcoin ETFs over 20 sessions, and Farside data showed $299.8 million in outflows on Nov 11 alone, mostly from BlackRock's IBIT.

What happened outside crypto?

Pressure built from several directions at once. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned on Nov 12. Hotter US inflation data raised the odds of a December Fed hike, pushing the dollar and yields higher. Iran's IRGC also claimed a strike on a US radar site in Bahrain.

Leveraged traders absorbed the damage. CoinGlass counted $1.23 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, mostly long bets, with bitcoin accounting for about $677.5 million of that. Ether fell 6.2% to $1,922, and XRP traded near $1.

Where does bitcoin sit now?

Bitcoin traded near $69K on Friday, down about 3% in a day. That puts it below both key moving averages. The 50-day average sits near $78K and the 200-day average near $76K. When price trades under both lines, they tend to act as ceilings on any bounce. The shorter average still sits above the longer one, a sign the drop from recent highs was fast and steep.

Glassnode's cost data adds pressure. The firm puts the average buy price of recent investors near $75,600. Anyone who bought in that wave is now sitting on a loss, and many may sell when price climbs back toward their entry. That creates a band of supply right where the two averages sit.

The losses span every timeframe. Bitcoin is down about 10% over the past week and about 18% over the past month. On the daily chart, each recovery attempt has stalled below prior highs while sellers keep setting lower prices.

Why haven't oversold readings stopped the sellers?

Bitcoin's daily RSI stands at 25. Readings under 30 count as oversold, and stretches like this often precede relief bounces as short sellers take profits and bargain hunters step in. But an oversold reading doesn't mark a bottom on its own; price can stay oversold for days while it keeps sliding.

Other gauges agree. The MACD remains below its signal line, meaning momentum still points down. Trend strength readings show a real trend, and sellers are leading it. Any bounce would need to hold for several sessions before it signals a turn.

Can whale bids hold the road to $63K?

Large holders are stepping in. Glassnode said wallets holding 100 to 10,000 BTC have placed large buy orders between $68,000 and $72,500. Bitcoin already sits inside that band, so those bids are being tested now.

The firm flagged a second buying area between $62,000 and $66,000, overlapping with the nearest daily-chart support. If whale orders keep absorbing sales, the oversold slide could slow there. A break below that support weakens the case: the next floor sits near $59K, with little in between. Forced selling from leveraged longs could speed up any move through that gap.

Two paths out of the oversold zone

• Bullish: A daily close above the first resistance near $75K — close to the 200-day average and recent buyers' cost — would show the whale bids are winning and open the way toward the next ceiling near $80K. The setup fails if price slips under the nearest support.
• Bearish: A break below the nearest support sends price toward the next floor, with little in between to slow it. A reclaim of the first resistance would cancel this view.

Glassnode's bottom line: bitcoin's trend stays bearish until fresh money returns. That means stablecoin supply growing again and ETF flows turning positive for more than a session or two. Oversold markets can still spark sharp short squeezes that catch bears off guard, while another macro shock — from inflation data or the Middle East — could deepen the drop.