Bitcoin Needs $75,000 Break to Reignite $100,000 Rally, Analyst Says

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe says Bitcoin can still rally to $100,000 — but only if it clears a short, specific checklist of technical levels, starting with a consistent close above roughly $75,000.

Bitcoin has spent the past six weeks in correction mode, yet van de Poppe argues the larger bull case remains intact. His first condition: Bitcoin must keep holding the 200-day Moving Average, a long-term trend line that has not been breached during this pullback. That's the floor. The trigger, he says, is reclaiming the 21-day Moving Average as support — a shorter-term level that flips momentum back in buyers' favor.

What levels actually matter here?

Van de Poppe laid out the map in plain terms. The first hurdle sits near $75,000. The next one waits at $77,200. Consistent daily closes above those two marks, he argues, would turn Bitcoin bullish in the near term and open the path toward the six-figure target.

To put that in perspective: a move from the low-$70,000s to $100,000 would represent a gain of roughly 30-40% — the kind of move that usually needs a catalyst, not just chart geometry.

The analyst pointed to one possible catalyst on Wednesday. He noted that Bitcoin's current price action is mirroring its 2023 rebound, the period when BTC climbed out of its post-FTX lows and built toward the eventual rally to new all-time highs. History doesn't repeat, but for practitioners, the parallel matters: 2023's recovery also looked choppy right before it accelerated.

Van de Poppe also flagged a potential short squeeze — a sharp price rally triggered when rising prices force short sellers to cover their positions. That forced buying adds volume and can accelerate an upward move fast. Traders who positioned for continued downside are the fuel.

Why has Bitcoin been selling off for six weeks?

The pressure has a clear source: United States investors. Their selling has driven the bearish sentiment of the past six weeks, and the numbers back that up.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded approximately $1.778 billion in net cash outflow over the past three consecutive weeks, according to metrics from SoSoValue. That's nearly $1.8 billion pulled out of the ETF wrapper in under a month — a sustained institutional retreat, not a one-week blip.

CryptoQuant data adds a second confirmation. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap — the difference between BTC's price on Coinbase and on Binance — has remained largely negative. In plain terms, a negative gap means U.S. investors aren't willing to pay the global market price for Bitcoin. American demand is, measurably, weaker than the rest of the world's.

What does this change for traders?

The setup splits into two independent questions. The technical question: does BTC hold the 200-day MA and close above $75,000, then $77,200? The flow question: do U.S. ETF outflows stop and the Coinbase Premium Gap turn positive again?

Van de Poppe's thesis effectively requires both. A renewed demand for Bitcoin in the United States, per the analysis, is what would stir bullish sentiment — and that demand shift, not the chart alone, is the variable to watch. If the ETF flows reverse and the premium gap climbs back toward neutral while price sits above the 200-day MA, the $100,000 scenario becomes a live trade thesis rather than a hope. Until then, the correction has the floor, but not yet the fuel.