Brent's 22% Eight-Day Crash Left a Rebound Too Weak to Reach First Target

By Nathan Brooks

Brent crude fell 22.4% — $25.50 — in eight trading days, dropping from $113.726 on October 31 to $88.226 on Tuesday evening, and the two-day bounce that followed has already stalled below its first technical target. ThinkMarkets, which published the chart analysis, puts the focus on a simple failure: the rebound never reached even the shallowest Fibonacci level.

The damage came fast. The sharpest single move was the November 4 evening candle, which spanned $7.93 and closed $7.41 below its open. That dwarfs the recent average four-hour range of $1.86 — roughly four times the norm. Brent now trades around $90.88 with the current candle open.

What does the failed rebound tell traders?

From the $88.226 low, Brent recovered $5.28 to a high of $93.509 on Wednesday evening. That fell short of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $94.244 — the shallowest recovery benchmark of the entire decline. No four-hour candle has closed near it. ThinkMarkets reads that miss as a sign of a weak rebound, not a reversal.

Thursday's second attempt did worse, peaking at $92.606, below Wednesday's high. The broader structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact.

The descending trendline from the $113.726 peak has capped every rally since and falls by about $2.48 per day. It sits near $92.19 at the current candle — and today's rally stalled almost exactly at that line. For practitioners, that's the first number to watch: no recovery conversation starts until four-hour closes clear it.

The resistance map, level by level

Above the trendline, ThinkMarkets lays out the ceilings in order:

• $92.688–$92.797: the November 5 lows that gave way on Monday. Wednesday's bounce briefly cleared this zone, then closed back below it.
• $93.41–$94.144: the low of the large November 4 candle plus Monday's rebound high. The 23.6% retracement at $94.244 sits just above — making $94.24 the threshold for any genuine recovery attempt.
• $95.42–$95.98: the shelf that held the lows from Friday into Monday before it broke.
• Beyond that: the 38.2% retracement at $97.967, the round $100 mark, and the 50% retracement at $100.976.

One floor, and nothing visible beneath it

On November 10, Brent tested the $88.226–$88.698 support zone three times and held. The visible chart shows no trading below it. If that floor breaks, the nearest references are $87.50 and then $85 — and the size of the November 4 candle shows how quickly price can travel through that area.

Momentum offers a partial consolation. The RSI spent most of the decline in oversold territory, bottoming at 18.93 on the evening of the big candle. It has since climbed to 40.61, back above its average of 35.48. A reading of 40 says selling pressure has eased, but ThinkMarkets cautions the trend remains unconfirmed and momentum could still shift either way.

The scenarios that matter

The setup resolves on four-hour closes, per ThinkMarkets:

• A close above $94.244 clears both the $93.41–$94.144 band and the first retracement, bringing $95.42–$95.98 into focus, followed by $97.967.
• A close below $88.226 breaks the only visible support, opening the path to $87.50 and $85.
• Between those triggers, Brent trades inside a six-day range, with the trendline near $92.19 as the first hurdle on the way up.

Geopolitics is the see-saw behind the barrels

The fundamentals mirror the chop. Brent futures settled 1.39% higher at $92.76 on Wednesday, November 11, after Iran's security chief said Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country (FxWirePro, November 12). Brent gave back those gains on Thursday, falling more than a dollar to $91.29 by 04:26 GMT.

Easing Middle East tensions have stripped out the geopolitical risk premium, while rising OPEC+ output and growing US inventories fuel oversupply concerns (FxWirePro, November 12). As ThinkMarkets notes, the chart shows how little of the sell-off Brent has recovered since the war premium faded.

The next catalyst arrives today: the Veterans Day holiday pushed the EIA's weekly petroleum inventories report to 12:00 US Eastern, 17:00 UTC. After a week in which inventory builds helped drive prices lower, the release could force another test of the levels above — and with only one visible floor under the market, downside tests carry more weight than relief rallies do.