Brent Slides to $90.42 as Trump Signals No New Strikes on Iran

Brent crude fell to $90.42 per barrel on November 10, with WTI sliding to $84.68, after Donald Trump said military strikes on Iran are unlikely as long as negotiations keep progressing. In the prior session, Brent futures lost 5.85% and WTI lost 4.38%.

The selloff accelerated after the US President met with the Prime Minister of Qatar on November 9. Trump confirmed after the meeting that he currently sees no need to resume strikes on Iran.

The numbers tell the story of how fast the market repriced. A November 3 forecast laid out four targets — Brent at $103 and $100, WTI at $95 and $94 — and all four were hit last week. Since then, both benchmarks have lost an additional $9-plus per barrel.

Why did oil keep falling?

Two developments drove the decline, and both point the same direction: a lower risk premium.

• Initial reports last week of Iran's contacts with Qatari mediators eased concerns about supply disruptions.
• Washington then publicly signaled its readiness to refrain from new strikes.

The logic is straightforward, according to the analysis. The lower the probability of escalation, the less buyers are willing to pay a premium for the risk of export interruptions.

An additional signal came from Baghdad. Iraq's Foreign Minister announced an agreement with the US that provides for transporting Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz via a route along the coast of Oman. If tankers can use that route regularly, part of the supply becomes more predictable.

In plain words: two separate channels — diplomacy with Iran and a workaround for Iraqi crude — both cut the same supply-risk premium out of the price.

What could bring buyers back?

The geopolitical picture hasn't fully cleared. Trump stated that the US will maintain its maritime blockade of Iran. Reports also continue to emerge from the Strait of Hormuz area about attacks on vessels.

What matters now for the market is whether tankers can pass through the strait on a regular basis. New disruptions could quickly return part of the risk premium to the price.

That's the balance traders are watching: negotiation headlines pull prices down, shipping incidents push them back up.

Where could the decline stop?

According to analysts at FreshForex, the decline may continue if two conditions hold: negotiations with Iran keep progressing, and flights of Iraqi tankers confirm the agreement with the US is actually working. Under that scenario, buyers would have fewer reasons to pay a premium for supply-disruption risk.

FreshForex's near-term targets, laid out for the end of the week:

• Brent: $87–88 per barrel
• WTI: $82–83 per barrel

That would mark a further drop of roughly $2.50–$3 from the November 10 closes — modest compared with the $9-plus slide already booked since the November 3 forecast levels.

The so-what for the week ahead: unless tanker traffic through Hormuz hits new trouble, the path of least resistance points lower, and $87 Brent is the number to watch.