CF Industries Rides Nitrogen Squeeze to 59% YTD Gain

CF Industries Holdings has climbed 59.4% year to date, nearly four times the gain of the VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO), as a tight global nitrogen market drove first-half net earnings up 92.3% to $1.34 billion.

The Northbrook, Illinois-based company, the world's largest ammonia producer with a market capitalization of roughly $19.3 billion, reported the results on August 5. Adjusted EBITDA rose 54.8% to $2.18 billion in the first half, while net sales climbed 18.4% to $4.21 billion, supported by higher average selling prices.

CF's core business is manufacturing and distributing ammonia and nitrogen products used primarily as fertilizer. The company is also expanding into low-carbon ammonia for power generation and marine shipping.

The stock's run

CF shares have gained 44.9% over the past 52 weeks, compared with a 14% rise for MOO, according to Barchart. Over the past three months, CF rose 19.8% against MOO's 9.2% gain.

The stock trades 13.2% below its 52-week high of $141.96, reached on March 30, 2026.

Technical indicators point to sustained momentum. CF has held above its 200-day moving average since mid-January and crossed above its 50-day moving average in early July, signaling upward trends across both longer and shorter time frames.

Operations and outlook

CF produced approximately 4.9 million tons of ammonia in the first half, operating at 98% of available capacity.

The company's competitive edge rests on its low-cost position in nitrogen production. Access to low-cost U.S. natural gas as a feedstock supports its production economics and profitability, while investments in carbon-free blue and green ammonia strengthen its focus on lower-carbon solutions and future energy applications.

With a valuation between $10 billion and $200 billion, CF sits firmly in large-cap territory, reflecting what Barchart describes as its substantial size, influence, and established position within the agricultural inputs industry.

The company expects nitrogen supply to remain constrained while demand stays constructive through the end of 2026 and into 2027. That balance could provide continued support for CF's business outlook.