China Drafts Export Curbs on 40 AI, Chip and Solar Technologies

China proposed restrictions or outright bans on exports of 40 technologies spanning artificial intelligence, semiconductors and solar power on Friday, escalating a technology standoff with the United States that has already cut Beijing off from the world's most advanced AI chips.

The Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology jointly published a draft document updating China's catalog of export-restricted technologies. A commerce ministry spokesperson said the move was "necessary" and cited national security among the reasons.

The proposal arrived as Beijing and Washington made progress on AI safety dialogues and a notification mechanism for AI incidents that could threaten national security. Those cooperative tracks now run parallel to a hardening export-control race in both directions.

What does the draft actually cover?

The list breaks down into specific sectors, according to the Chinese ministries:

• 23 AI technologies, from advanced large models to AI agents
• Several chip design technologies, including for some AI processing chips and memory chips
• 12 solar power technologies, including those tied to polysilicon, a core raw material in the solar supply chain
• Five biomedicine technologies, including those related to cell and gene therapy

The draft would prohibit exports of core technologies behind AI large models trained on sensitive national data. It would also block AI agents designed for highly sensitive environments such as national defense and critical information infrastructure.

The message is selective: China is not walling off its tech sector, it is ring-fencing the national-security core of it.

Where is the 2-trillion-parameter line drawn?

AI models with parameter counts of 2 trillion or above, or with certain world-leading capabilities, could face export restrictions under the proposal. A model's parameter count is a key metric that reflects its learning capacity.

Chinese models including Moonshot's Kimi K3 and Alibaba's Qwen 3.8-Max already exceed the 2 trillion mark. Friday's proposal did not name specific models, leaving which products actually fall under the rule unclear.

That omission matters. Without named models, the effective scope of the restriction will depend on implementing rules that have not been published.

Is this retaliation for U.S. export bans?

The structure of the move tracks a pattern set by Washington. U.S.-led restrictions over the past several years have blocked China from accessing cutting-edge AI chips and the advanced chipmaking machines that produce them.

The commerce ministry framed its proposal in governance terms. "The Chinese government is implementing such necessary measures with the aims of reinforcing the security bottom line, preventing misuse and abuse, and ensuring that AI remains under human control," the ministry's statement said.

Lian Jye Su, a chief analyst at technology research and advisory group Omdia, read the draft as a broader answer to Western policy. The move "can be seen as a response to Western countries posting sovereignty requirements on AI, robotics, telecommunications, and other key technologies," Su said, adding that the aim would be to better regulate access to Chinese technologies.

There is precedent for this kind of control on the U.S. side. The U.S. Commerce Department in June asked Anthropic to bar foreign nationals from using some of its most powerful AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, citing national security concerns. Those restrictions were later lifted.

What does it mean for global tech trade?

Gary Ng, a senior economist at French bank Natixis, said AI is increasingly strategic for both China and the United States. "The world is getting more fragmented in trade and investment, but also in access to technologies," Ng said.

The draft is not yet law; it is a proposal open to the Chinese regulatory process. But if adopted as written, it would give Beijing the same lever Washington has pulled for years — the ability to choke off key technologies at the border, in sectors from defense AI to polysilicon.

By Olivia Hart for Business Bearings