Early Anthropic Backer Sees $2.4 Trillion IPO, Topping SpaceX

An early Anthropic backer predicts the company will price its IPO at roughly $1.8 trillion and trade up to a value of $2.3 to $2.4 trillion — a debut that would eclipse SpaceX's $2.1 trillion opening-day close and claim the biggest IPO in history. The investor, who spoke to Fortune this week on condition of anonymity so he could speak freely, made the call in blunt terms: "I think the IPO shares will be priced at around $1.8 trillion, but that we'll see a 'trading value' once the shares start changing hands of $2.3 to $2.4 trillion."

For context: SpaceX, the current record holder, closed its first trading session at a market cap of $2.1 trillion and now sits near $2.03 trillion. The investor argues the $2.3–2.4 trillion range reflects Anthropic's underlying worth rather than a fleeting post-IPO burst. That claim is doing a lot of work; first-day pops fade, and he offers no revenue or profit figures to anchor the number.

By Olivia Hart, Business Bearings

Why did this investor buy in early?

The thesis, in his telling, was positioning. "I originally invested in Anthropic because they were less consumer-oriented and more of an enterprise play, and made a huge hit with Claude," he said. He added: "Why will they go out at such a huge valuation? Because they're perceived as the top name in foundation models, the premier foundation model-builder."

Foundation models — general-purpose platforms trained on giant datasets for uses spanning language models, computer vision, robotics and agentic workflows — are the asset class's crown jewels, in his framing. Anthropic's "position in foundation shows it's not a flash in the pan," he said. The takeaway in plain words: he bought an enterprise moat, not a consumer fad.

The structural numbers back half of that story. Anthropic derives around 80% of its revenue from enterprise customers. OpenAI's business side, by contrast, has grown to roughly half of its total sales — a gap, but a closing one that the investor's confidence glosses over.

How does Anthropic compare with OpenAI?

"OpenAI started going more after the consumer, and Anthropic more after enterprise," the investor said. "They're both really good companies, and they leapfrog each other in the power of their models at any particular time. They're both chaotic, but I feel that Anthropic's a little less chaotic."

Part of his conviction is harder to audit. "I find that Anthropic had a little more soul than OpenAI. Dario Amodei is pretty principled about the kind of company he wants," he said. Culture is a real factor in due diligence; it is also the kind of claim that survives no falsification test.

Can Anthropic beat SpaceX to profitability?

The investor draws a sharp line between the two companies' timelines. "SpaceX is basically a play on Elon Musk, who's arguably the greatest entrepreneur in many generations, including Steve Jobs. But the SpaceX story will take a while to play out," he said.

Anthropic, in his view, is different. "Anthropic is not a story that takes a lot of time to play out. What it has going for it, it's the fastest-growing company in history," he said. He concedes one risk openly: "My guess is that prices will come down due to open models and not all will be done on foundation, but that usage will continue to explode."

That admission matters more than the headline number. If open models compress pricing, a $2.4 trillion valuation requires usage growth to outrun falling unit economics — for years, at scale. The investor's answer: "Anthropic can afford to slow down and still have huge value. It will continue to be one of these names where people say, I feel like I have to own it."

What he did not say is when Anthropic turns a profit, or how much capital the S-1 will reveal it has burned getting here. Those disclosures, not the debut pop, will decide whether $2.4 trillion was a valuation or a vibe.