Ethereum’s 20.3% Slide Puts $2,005 Demand Under Test

By Nathan Brooks

ETH fell 20.3% from $2,515.55 on Oct. 20 to $2,005 on Nov. 9, according to Chevmark’s Update 2, dated Nov. 11, 2026, which carries a bearish bias. The same update put ETH at about $2,044.14 on OKX at 09:54 UTC, inside the $2,005–$2,063.29 demand zone.

Chevmark’s Oct. 22 Update 1 published a neutral view at about $2,399, already below its own range. The Oct. 22 daily close printed $2,398.86, below the $2,425 alternative trigger, and the invalidation fired two days later. On Oct. 24, the close reached $2,306.73, below $2,329.

In the update, the recovery never neared the old supply. Chevmark says ETH did exactly what the alternative path mapped and kept going. ETH’s highest post-publication print was $2,450.79 on Nov. 3, still $70 below the $2,520.75–$2,552.59 supply zone. ETH never tested that zone.

The update dates three-day congestion at $2,206–$2,242 to Nov. 5 through Nov. 7. ETH broke down Nov. 8 with a $2,147.53 daily close, then posted a $2,023.79 close and a $2,005 low Nov. 9. Chevmark says the bounce from $2,005 recovered only 10.1% of the decline from Oct. 20 to Nov. 9.

What levels decide the next move?

Chevmark’s update sets four key levels:

• Resistance — $2,206–$2,242: The Nov. 5 low was $2,206; the Nov. 6 low, $2,216.94; and the Nov. 7 low and close, $2,222.58 and $2,242. The three-day congestion broke Nov. 8.
• Key level — $2,125.49: The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,515.55–$2,005 leg and the first reclaim above the current price.
• Demand — $2,005–$2,063.29: The Nov. 9 low was $2,005, and the Nov. 8 low was $2,063.29. Chevmark’s downside rule: “a daily close below $2,005 breaks it.”
• Resistance — $2,426.44–$2,450.79: The Nov. 3 close at $2,426.44 and spike high at $2,450.79 marked the rejected recovery high and the top of the alternative path.

Chevmark’s Fibonacci levels reinforce that ceiling. The 38.2% retracement of the $2,515.55–$2,005 leg sits at $2,200.03, just below the band. The 50% retracement of the $2,450.79–$2,005 leg sits at $2,227.89, inside it. Chevmark describes the ceiling as confluence rather than a single line.

Chevmark’s moving averages confirm the bearish read. ETH sits below EMA20 at $2,280.26, EMA50 at $2,365.03, EMA200 at $2,283.13, SMA50 at $2,461.89 and SMA200 at $2,153.40.

EMA20 has crossed below EMA50 and now sits just under EMA200. Daily RSI was 29.3. Chevmark calls that reading oversold: a bounce can come fast, but oversold alone does not signal a reversal.

Base case

Chevmark’s base scenario starts with rejection below $2,206–$2,242, keeping the bearish drift moving. The first retest is the $2,005–$2,063.29 demand zone, already under test. A daily close below $2,005 opens a deeper leg, with no fresh verified support until the August congestion around $1,853.76–$1,912.41.

Alternative case and invalidation

Chevmark’s alternative scenario requires a daily close above $2,242, which reclaims the Nov. 5–7 congestion and ends the bearish read. The path then runs to $2,426.44–$2,450.79 first, followed by the old $2,520.75–$2,552.59 supply zone.

The stated invalidation: “a daily close above $2,242 ends the bearish read and flips the view back to range/neutral.”

CPI does not break $2,005

Chevmark’s risk note tracks the CPI release at 13:30 UTC on Tuesday, Nov. 10. Headline CPI printed +0.4% month over month against a +0.3% forecast. Core CPI reached +0.3%, above the +0.2%