EUR/USD Faces CPI Test After US Payrolls Jump to 165K

By Grace Kim

EUR/USD traded at 1.1171 at 07:10 UTC on Nov. 9, according to AetherEdge’s TradingView chart, which placed the pair below its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages.

What has reset the dollar?

CNBC and Reuters reported that U.S. October payrolls rose 165,000, well above the roughly 60,000 expected. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, and wages rose 0.4% from the prior month.

AetherEdge said the dollar jumped about 0.7% on Friday. Reuters reported that CME FedWatch now assigns about a 79% probability to a Dec. 9 Federal Reserve rate hike, up from 71% a week earlier. AetherEdge put the current Fed funds range at 3.75%-4.00%.

Where do the technical levels sit?

AetherEdge said the daily trend remained down from the Aug. 21 high of 1.1712. Its 20-day average stood near 1.1197, the 50-day average near 1.1345, and the 100-day average near 1.1417.

Since mid-October, EUR/USD had been basing in a 1.1105-1.1275 range, which AetherEdge described as near the pair’s lowest level since May 2025. The four-hour chart showed the Nov. 4-5 advance to 1.1275 and 1.1271 forming a double top at the range ceiling.

Friday’s jobs data sent price back to 1.1136. The Asia-session bounce was heading toward the 1.1200 pivot, which AetherEdge described as both the 20-day average and the middle of the range.

• Resistance: 1.1200, followed by 1.1275, the range top and double top.
• Support: 1.1136, the Nov. 6 low, followed by 1.1105, the range floor.

How do inflation and rate expectations change the setup?

Eurostat reported eurozone October flash inflation of 4.0%, with core inflation at 2.5%. AetherEdge listed the European Central Bank deposit rate at 2.50%.

In the ECB section of AetherEdge’s note, an ING pre-payrolls report put about 18 basis points of December hikes into market prices. Nagel said there is “likely no way around” a hike.

AetherEdge also reported German September exports rising 2.0%, compared with 0.5% expected, in data released that day.

What do broader markets show?

Yahoo and countryeconomy data cited by AetherEdge put the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.86% and Germany’s Bund 10-year yield at 3.25%, based on Nov. 6 closes. The difference was about 161 basis points and unchanged on the week.

Yahoo’s dollar index reading was 102.05. AetherEdge added that Brent crude traded near $97 after a 16% weekly decline.

What can US CPI trigger?

In AetherEdge’s own scenario analysis, the analyst assigned 55% weight to a downside path and 45% to an upside path.

• Scenario A, 55%: The bounce stalls below 1.1200 into CPI. A hot inflation print lifts Federal Reserve hike odds further, sends EUR/USD back to 1.1136 and, if that support breaks, retests the 1.1105 range floor.
• Scenario B, 45%: A soft CPI print trims the odds of a December hike. A four-hour close above 1.1210 opens a return to 1.1275.

AetherEdge said a four-hour close above 1.1210 cancels the bearish view. A four-hour close below 1.1100 cancels Scenario B and opens 1.1000.

What arrives in the next 48 hours?

AetherEdge’s calendar, with times in UTC, lists:

• Nov. 9, 09:30: Sentix.
• Nov. 9, 16:00, or 11:00 ET: New York Fed inflation expectations.
• Nov. 9: Federal Reserve speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin.
• Nov. 10, 13:30, or 08:30 ET: U.S. CPI for October.
• Nov. 11: U.S. Veterans Day, with the bond market closed.
• Nov. 11, 09:45: Lagarde.

AetherEdge’s note says the setup is not financial advice. The Nov. 10 CPI release is the next major test: AetherEdge’s framework places 1.1105 on the downside and 1.1275 on the upside.