Farm Bankruptcies Jump 85% as Trump Policies Bite Rural America

Farm bankruptcies have jumped 85% over the past two years, and rural voters are punishing Republicans for it. In Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska and Texas — states Donald Trump won by 13 percentage points or more in 2024 — polls now show Republican Senate candidates at serious risk of losing, according to analysis by journalist Steven Greenhouse writing in The Guardian.

Kansas may elect its first Democratic senator in nearly a century. Adam Hamilton runs there for Democrats, alongside Josh Turek in Iowa, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, James Talarico in Texas and the independent progressive Dan Osborn in Nebraska.

Why have rural voters turned on Trump?

Diesel fuel, the key input for tractors and combines, soared nearly 70% to a record $6.52 a gallon in late September after Trump launched the war against Iran. It averaged $3.75 a gallon before the war and has since declined only to $6.32.

The American Farm Bureau Federation reported last month that "the record-high input cost environment" means "no major row crop", such as soybeans or corn, "is projected to clear break-even" this year.

Vance Ehmke, a Kansas farmer, told the Hastings Tribune: "Compared to last year, our fuel bill is $50,000 higher." He added that fertilizer would cost "at least another $20,000 or $40,000 increase".

"That's all due to Trump and his war in Iran. We are madder than hell about it," Ehmke said. "I want to tell you that I am a Republican, and I'm pissed."

What did the trade wars cost?

Before Trump's first term, the US and Brazil each supplied about 40% of China's soybean imports. Now the US supplies just 23%, with Brazil at over 60% and Argentina at 10%, according to John Tsitrian, a South Dakota business executive who writes about rural America.

China imports around $60bn worth of soybeans annually. The shift costs US farmers roughly $10bn a year in lost exports, and Tsitrian calls it long-lasting "structural damage".

John Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, told a Washington news conference that farmers "are facing the worst economic and financial crisis since the farm crisis of the 1980s" because of "the misuse of tariffs, record high agricultural input costs, soaring fertilizer costs" and "high interest rates".

Hansen said: "Just when farmers need to expand markets for their products, the president seems to be at war with our nation's top three trading partners: Mexico, Canada and China. When trade wars break out, farmer noses always bleed first and worst and longest."

Even the Cato Institute, a conservative thinktank, wrote that Trump's "tariffs are inflicting serious damage" on farmers despite his talk of a "golden age".

How bad is the political damage for the GOP?

A Fox News poll found less than half of rural voters — 49% — now say they support GOP candidates this fall, down from the nearly two-thirds who backed Trump in 2024. A KFF/AP poll found roughly six in 10 rural voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, and around half believe the economy is worse than when he took office.

The Wall Street Journal ran the headline: "Republicans are facing the worst political environment in farm country in decades." Nancy Danner, an Iowa soybean and corn farmer, told the paper: "We need to get some other voices in there to push back a little bit on this stuff." She plans to vote only for Democrats in November.

Matt Bell, a North Carolina farmer who voted for Trump in 2024, told CBS News: "Everything we touch has gone up. We're in a position now where we're mad and ready to be heard."

Can cash bailouts fix it?

Trump announced $8bn in emergency aid to farmers on Monday at a Kansas rally, calling it the Harvest Fuel Relief Program. The move looked aimed at rescuing Kansas Senator Roger Marshall. It follows a $12bn bailout announced last December, and sits alongside a plan to hand $5,000 to every American adult.

Jon Tester, a third-generation Montana farmer and former US senator, said: "He has sold out rural America with his policies."

The broader damage extends beyond trade. Trump's "big, beautiful bill" cut food assistance and included $1tn in Medicaid cuts that will strip health insurance from an estimated 1.8 million rural Americans. Ranchers also oppose the plan to import roughly 660m lb of tariff-free beef to cut prices by 25%; the National Cattlemen's Beef Association said the move would undercut the struggling industry's stability.

Tsitrian wrote: "Today's tough farm economy, in regular need of federal cash infusions, is the result of a disaster that has a specific name attached to it: Donald Trump. Unlike most disasters, this one was utterly foreseeable."