Flooding Could Cost West North Texas $2.3 Billion by 2070

By Nathan Brooks

Flooding could cause nearly $2.3 billion in damage across western North Texas over the next 50 years, according to preliminary findings from the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG). That figure covers a four-county swath west of Fort Worth, and it's a bill that arrives with a timeline attached.

The number comes from the Integrated Transportation and Stormwater Infrastructure Study, launched in 2023. Its mandate is straightforward: figure out the best ways to design growth across sectors so flood damage falls and safety improves. The preliminary findings zero in on western North Texas, including parts of Parker, Tarrant, Hood and Johnson counties.

For anyone building, financing or insuring in those counties, the study's core projection matters more than the headline damage figure. Developed surfaces — roads, sidewalks, parking lots — covered 6.4% of the land in 2020. By 2070, the study estimates that share hits 35.2%. That's more than a fivefold increase in impervious ground, which means more runoff and less natural earth for precipitation to soak into.

What does the growth math look like?

The demographic backdrop explains the urgency. As of 2025, the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex holds roughly 8.4 million people. That could climb past 12 million by 2050 — nearly four million new residents in 25 years, many of them settling on land that today is still open prairie.

Layer on climate pressure and the risk compounds. Extreme precipitation is expected to increase as more heat becomes trapped in the atmosphere due to man-made climate change, according to the study.

Susan Alvarez, NCTCOG's director of environment and development, put the capacity question bluntly: "If we develop those areas to the same density as Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington and all the cities in between, does our downstream watershed have capacity? And the easy answer is no."

What's inside the $2.3 billion?

The damage estimate isn't a vague regional aggregate. It counts:

• Existing and future buildings
• The contents inside those buildings
• Cars
• Displacement costs, such as temporary housing for residents forced from their homes

That last category is the one practitioners tend to underestimate. Displacement runs through the damage total, not around it.

What does this change for developers and local governments?

The study's central argument is sequencing: drainage and transportation planning belong at the start of development decisions, not after them. "What this study really looked at is: how can we incorporate draining and transportation planning from the very start? And how can we develop these upstream areas in a way where we're not impacting our downstream neighbors?" Alvarez said.

She also framed the fiscal stakes for taxpayers: "By coordinating how we plan for development…. (we can) avoid passing along even greater costs to communities in the future."

The study suggests concrete local policy options:

• Keeping new buildings back from floodplains
• Requiring developers to check how projects affect downstream neighbors
• Reducing paved surfaces

Any of those would reshape entitlement processes in Parker, Tarrant, Hood and Johnson counties if local governments adopt them. Developers should expect downstream-impact review to become a standard ask, not an exception.

Where the money could go

NCTCOG has identified more than 200 potential projects to reduce flooding and strengthen infrastructure. The recommendations include larger culverts and bridges, drainage built into roadway corridors, rain gardens and flood warning systems.

Nine of those projects are currently being submitted for state funding consideration. Those nine proposals are ready for immediate design and construction, according to the study, while the rest still need more analysis. For engineering and construction firms, that pipeline represents a multi-year workload if even a fraction reaches funding.

What comes next

The preliminary findings don't cover the whole region yet. The final version will add analysis for other areas, including Denton and Wise counties, and it's expected to be completed by the end of this year. When it lands, the total regional risk picture — and the project list — will almost certainly grow. Anyone with assets, land or contracts in the western Metroplex should treat the current $2.3 billion estimate as a floor, not a ceiling.