Flutter Has Lost Two-Thirds of Its Value. Four Guidance Cuts Did It.

Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE:FLUT), the world's biggest online betting company, closed at $89.56 on September 18, 2026 — near its 52-week low and down about 69% from its high a year ago.

On September 21, Rothschild downgraded the stock to Neutral and cut its price target to $119 from $169. The bank's stated reason: Flutter has lowered its 2026 forecast four times this year.

Why the Forecast Keeps Falling

A few forces are squeezing the US business. States keep raising taxes on betting. Illinois now charges a fee on every online wager. Consequently, betting there dropped around 15%. Flutter anticipates approximately $40 million in extra tax costs nationwide.

Competition is getting heavier at the same time. To retain customers, the leading companies are increasing bonuses and free bets, which pressures margins. Unpredictable sports results complicate the business further. In its last update, Flutter cut FanDuel's profit outlook by 22%.

The Bull Case

FanDuel still holds about 44% of the US sports-betting market, commanding roughly 41% to 44% of gross gaming revenue (GGR) share. Its closest rival, DraftKings, secures 32% to 34%. Total company revenue grew 17% year over year, with around 20% expansion in the high-margin online casino division.

Sports outcomes naturally even out over the long term, bulls argue, which should normalize near-term volatility. After the 69% sell-off, shares trade at nearly 13 times forward earnings — an attractive multiple for the leader of a fast-growing industry.

The Bear Case

The bears think the damage is beyond recovery. Gaming taxes rarely get rolled back, while heavy spending remains necessary to keep customer retention rates up. Four forecast cuts in a single year raise deep concerns about management's ability to judge its own business.

Institutional interest has also faded. According to the Insider Monkey database, the number of hedge funds holding Flutter fell to 37 at the end of the second quarter of 2026, down from 57 in the first.

The Bottom Line

Flutter remains the market leader, but repeated guidance cuts have tested investor patience. For long-term investors, the sell-off offers an entry point into a growing business trading at a steep discount. Without operational stability in management, however, the decline will continue and the discount will be meaningless. Steady earnings guidance in the upcoming quarters will be the signal that management performance is recovering.