Fossil Fuel CO2 Set to Flatline at 38.2bn Tonnes as War-Driven Oil Slide Bites

By Grace Kim

Carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal will flatline at about 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, a fall of just 0.4% from last year, according to the Global Carbon Budget published Tuesday in the journal Earth System Science Data. Oil emissions alone will drop 2% as drivers cut fuel use and switch to electric vehicles after the war in Iran sent prices soaring.

Scientists from scores of universities and science institutions presented the findings at the Cop31 climate talks in Antalya, Turkey. Their assessment credits two forces: the oil price shock from the Iran war and the global build-out of cheap renewables, chiefly solar and wind.

Don't call it a turnaround yet.

What does the 0.4% drop actually mean?

Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, who was not involved in the research, put the number in blunt terms: "The picture from the Global Carbon Budget is a flatline, not a decline – a projected fall of just 0.4% in 2026, a figure that is unfortunately statistically indistinguishable from zero."

The fossil fuel dip is also more than offset by rising emissions from deforestation and land use change, after major fires in south-east Asia and further conversion of wild land to agriculture. Total carbon emissions will rise from 42.8 billion tonnes last year to a forecast 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026.

Glen Peters, research professor at the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research, said: "A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak, unless it is driven by structural change. Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions."

How much carbon budget is left?

About 150 billion tonnes. That's the remaining room before global heating likely exceeds 1.5C above pre-industrial levels permanently — less than four years at current emission rates.

The margin is already under pressure. Temperatures have exceeded the 1.5C threshold for more than two years, and El Niño conditions are heating the sea and air further. The authors say global emissions must peak imminently and fall rapidly to limit the temperature "overshoot."

Energy demand keeps climbing as more people gain access to electricity and exit poverty. The one bright structural signal: two-thirds of that demand growth is being met by solar, wind generation and electric vehicles.

Which countries are moving the numbers?

• China, the world's biggest emitter, is likely to cut carbon output by close to 1% this year, driven mostly by a 5% reduction in oil use after the Iran war. Peters said: "China has had flat emissions for the last few years after a fairly steep increase in the last decade. There's been a lot of discussion about whether China has peaked or not. Whether this is just a one-off and China rebounds next year, we'll have to wait and see, it's too early to say."
• India's emissions have grown strongly on higher coal use, while its oil use declined slightly.
• US emissions are likely to fall about 1.3% as coal use drops, despite President Donald Trump's attempts to boost the fuel.

Could the trend reverse?

The report's authors flag several risks: intensified coal expansion in India, an easing of oil prices, and Trump's enthusiasm for fossil fuels. Permanent annual reductions, they said, will require much greater investment in renewables and low-carbon technology such as electric vehicles.

The politics aren't helping. More than 90 heads of state and government, plus high-level representatives from more than 190 countries, are gathering in Antalya for a fortnight of talks. Hare sees little urgency there.

"We see governments in countries such as Canada, the US and New Zealand rolling back climate policies as fast as they can, and countries such as Australia – co-president of Cop31 – continuing to press forward with massive coal and gas developments that are holding fossil fuel CO2 emissions at record levels," he said. "There is little sign yet that the Turkish and Australian leadership [of Cop31] intends to build on [the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels made three years ago] with stronger action."

Hare's bottom line: with a sustained breach of 1.5C projected by around 2030, "we are entitled to expect governments everywhere to move decisively to cut fossil fuel CO2 emissions." On the evidence at Cop31 so far, that decisive move hasn't started.