Freeport-McMoRan’s $72 Target Bets on Grasberg Recovery

By Olivia Hart

FreedomHolding’s research puts a $72 price target on Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (NYSE: FCX), implying about 16.5% upside from roughly $61.80 per share. The author writes: “Our rating is Buy, with a $72 price target and a recommended stop-loss at $52.” The note lists a $59 entry price, “High” risk and an approximately two-month horizon.

At $61.80, the stop sits about 15.9% below the quoted price, nearly as much downside as the target offers upside. That makes the recommendation a short-horizon recovery trade rather than a valuation case built around mine expansion.

What does the correction show?

FreedomHolding says FCX had fallen around 20% since the beginning of October, including a further 7.5% decline on November 5. The sell-off brought the stock close to a technical support area around $57, and the research treats the correction as potentially temporary within a longer-term upward trend.

The note also says the fundamental growth drivers remain intact, although it does not quantify how much of the decline fundamentals explain. A technical support level can mark where buying appeared; it does not establish a floor or prove that the longer-term trend still holds. The Buy case therefore depends on the sell-off proving temporary, not on the chart alone.

What did Q3 show?

Freeport-McMoRan reported adjusted EPS of $0.88, revenue of $7.55 billion and operating cash flow of $2.0 billion in Q3. FreedomHolding said those results supported its operating thesis.

Management expects Q4 to be the strongest quarter of 2026, with copper sales projected at 875 million pounds versus 749 million pounds in Q3. That represents a 126 million-pound, or 16.8%, sequential increase, alongside potential support from higher gold shipments, recovering Indonesian production and favorable copper prices.

Those forecasts require both operating improvement and supportive market conditions. Neither outcome is established by Q3’s results alone. The near-term test is whether Q4 delivers the projected shipment increase while sustaining the cash generation reported in the third quarter.

How much can Grasberg recover?

FreedomHolding identifies Grasberg’s recovery as an important driver for 2027. Production utilization reached 67% in Q3, while management targets 80% by mid-2027 and a return toward full capacity by year-end.

The company expects annual copper sales to rise from 3.0 billion pounds in 2026 to 3.7 billion pounds in 2027 and more than 4 billion pounds in 2028. Much of that increase is expected to come from restoring existing capacity rather than requiring major additional investment.

That reduces reliance on new capital projects, but the note provides no detailed spending split, mine-by-mine schedule or sensitivity for missed utilization targets. The forecast depends more on execution at existing assets than on a new commodity-price surge.

What does the Bagdad expansion add?

The board approved a $4.5 billion investment program for the Bagdad mine in Arizona. FreedomHolding says the program should add approximately 225 million pounds to annual copper production and reduce unit cash costs by around 20% over the long term.

Additional capacity is scheduled to start in 2030. The spending commitment and output target provide measurable benchmarks, but the payoff arrives years after the research’s two-month horizon. The note offers no project-level return estimate or detailed spending schedule, leaving its cost and timing assumptions less tested than the production target.

Bagdad expands the long-term production case, but it cannot support the short-term rating on its own.

What could derail the thesis?

FreedomHolding says the U.S. political environment could have mixed implications for copper producers. Greater regulatory uncertainty could make permitting and mine expansion more difficult, potentially further restricting supply.

The main near-term risk is trade policy and the normalization of U.S. copper inventories, according to the note. A reduction or removal of U.S. import tariffs could pressure regional copper premiums, alter physical trade flows and weigh on copper prices.

That creates a policy mismatch: tighter regulation may support long-term scarcity, while lower tariffs could damage near-term pricing. The research does not quantify either outcome, leaving the $72 target exposed to assumptions the note does not spell out.

What should investors watch next?

The next operational tests are Q4 copper shipments against the 875 million-pound forecast and Grasberg utilization above the 67% reported in Q3. Management’s 80% mid-2027 target matters more for the 2027 volume forecast than for the next two months of share performance.

If shipments and utilization improve as expected, FreedomHolding’s $72 target gains credibility; if they stall, the distant Bagdad expansion cannot repair the near-term thesis. That is the central test for a high-risk, two-month Buy recommendation.