Gas Above $4 a Gallon for Four Months Threatens GOP Midterm Grip

By Grace Kim

The national average price of gasoline has stayed above $4 per gallon since the middle of June, and Republican strategists privately concede the Iran war it stems from is severely damaging the party's push to keep control of Congress in the Nov. 3 midterms.

Noor Dubow, 44, a dispatcher at a trucking logistics firm in Columbus, Ohio, is one of the voters pulling away. He regularly votes Republican on economic grounds, though he's never been a fan of Donald Trump. This year, casting his early ballot, he tipped toward Democrats over the president's decision to go to war with Iran.

"Where are the Republicans in Congress?" Dubow asked. "Why aren't the Republicans holding Trump accountable?"

From his dispatch desk, Dubow has a bird's-eye view of what surging fuel prices are doing to the economy. Diesel continues to hover near all-time highs in the U.S., creating trouble for Republicans in typically conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, where candidates are knotted in competitive races with Democrats.

How bad is the political damage?

Trump, who promised to keep the U.S. out of foreign wars, often describes the nearly 8-month-old conflict as a "little detour." He predicted at the onset it would last a matter of weeks. The war has instead spread: Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports, and a Saudi-led coalition has responded with deadly strikes on Houthi-held territory in Yemen.

Over the weekend, the State Department said it was reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East after receiving intelligence that Iran has stepped up efforts to target American personnel in the region and elsewhere.

Early in the summer, five Republican strategists involved in key races or advising campaign leadership told the Associated Press they'd begun seeing warning signs that the war could hurt their candidates if it didn't wind down soon. In June, Trump forged an interim ceasefire agreement with Tehran; the deal unraveled within weeks.

After that collapse, campaign officials in some battleground races grew more forceful in internal conversations about how House districts Trump won easily in 2024 were becoming competitive, said the strategists, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss internal party data.

Oil prices peaked in May, fell in June and surged again in September as Trump threatened to escalate before backing off and suggesting a deal was near. After Labor Day, strategists said internal polls showed voters increasingly tying the war to higher grocery prices and travel costs. An AP-NORC poll published last week found voters from both parties want the next Congress to focus on affordability and ending the war.

What is Trump telling voters?

Trump has consistently downplayed the conflict's economic impact. He insists the war's end is near — often in the same speech where he threatens a new round of bombing after the election passes. He calls gas price criticism a "hoax" or "scam" invented by Democrats. Internal campaign polling suggests that argument hasn't resonated, the strategists said.

At a weekend rally in Michigan, Trump said he has no regrets.

"Somebody said, 'If you had it to do again … ,'" Trump told the audience. "I said, 'Are you kidding?' I thought gas would be double or triple. And it's a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs."

Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, said the mixed message has left Republican candidates in a difficult, if not untenable, position. "Trump's messaging on the war is resonating with a shrinking portion of the electorate," Borick said. "For voters disappointed with the direction of the conflict, there's little by way of the president's claims that would change their negative outlook."

Only a few elected Republicans have parted ways with Trump over the conflict, and the president has insisted the midterms will have no bearing on his approach.

Are Republican voters wavering?

Even supporters of the war admit prices are testing their patience. Clay Coey, 59, an auctioneer from DeWitt, Michigan, cringes filling his 2010 Chrysler Sebring. "Do I like it? No, I drive this old beast," Coey said. "However, there does come a point in time where you have to sit here and say, 'What is worth the cost?'"

Elizabeth Marlett, 61, a beef rancher from Iowa's GOP-heavy northwest, wished Trump hadn't set a timeline but is sticking with him: "We need to support our commander in chief, even if things take longer than expected. That's life, and we can't run from something we've started."

For some, the war betrays the "America First" pledge to avoid "forever wars." Sean O'Brien, 21, a student at Auburn University who attended CPAC earlier this year, said the decision left him "very disillusioned." "At the moment, I expect to vote Democratic," said O'Brien, an independent.

With gas above $4 since mid-June and柴油 costs near records, the Nov. 3 vote amounts to a referendum on the price of a war the president keeps promising to end.