Gold's $4,075 Test Hangs on the October US CPI Print

By Daniel Okafor

Gold was trading around $4,114.685 on OANDA's XAUUSD, according to CaptionGold_Trader's TradingView chart snapshot, after another rejection from the $4,137–$4,154 resistance block. CaptionGold_Trader says that move put the reclaimed $4,075 order block back in focus. In the H1 setup, buyers must now prove they can defend the previous breakout area.

Why did gold stall again at $4,154?

CaptionGold_Trader traces the broader recovery from Lower Demand. A bullish market structure shift came first, followed by a break of structure. Buyers then cleared the lower fair value gap and reclaimed the $4,075.326 order block. That sequence drove price toward the upper rejection zone.

The $4,137–$4,154 area attracted selling pressure once again. Gold is now pulling away from that resistance, creating a potential retest of the previous breakout level. CaptionGold_Trader frames the test as the difference between a healthy retracement and the beginning of a deeper correction. The author writes: "The recovery structure remains intact, but the rejection at $4,137–$4,154 has shifted attention toward the $4,075 order block."

What would confirm another recovery attempt?

CaptionGold_Trader puts the Fibonacci 0.786 reference near $4,098 first. The $4,075 order block follows. A liquidity sweep followed by a strong reclaim would support another recovery attempt. A defended retest that produces a higher low would do the same.

Initial resistance sits around $4,110–$4,120. The $4,137–$4,154 rejection block follows. An H1 close above approximately $4,154, followed by a successful retest, would strengthen the case for an extension toward $4,190–$4,195 on the one-hour chart. CaptionGold_Trader requires both the H1 close and the successful retest.

What happens if the $4,075 order block fails?

An H1 close below $4,075.326, followed by a failed reclaim, would weaken the immediate bullish continuation setup and put the next support zone back in focus. CaptionGold_Trader identifies the $4,027–$4,045 Fibonacci premium zone as the next area of interest. If buyers fail to defend that area, the lower fair value gap around $3,959–$3,993 becomes the next downside point of interest. The deeper order block near $3,920.917 remains a structural reference in the chart.

What does the October US CPI print mean for gold?

CaptionGold_Trader attributes gold's recovery to a softer US dollar, declining oil prices and renewed safe-haven demand. The note also points to Friday's stronger-than-expected US employment report. That report reinforced expectations of a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, according to CaptionGold_Trader. CaptionGold_Trader says the market will watch both the inflation readings and the subsequent reaction in the US dollar and Treasury yields after the release.

Tuesday's October US CPI release is the next major catalyst. It is scheduled for 13:30 UTC, or 20:30 Vietnam time. CaptionGold_Trader writes: "Tuesday's US CPI release could determine whether the current pullback develops into a buying opportunity or a deeper correction."

Softer inflation and declining Treasury yields could support gold's recovery. Stronger core inflation and rising yields could increase selling pressure and challenge the $4,075 support. Either outcome would test the recovery structure that CaptionGold_Trader says remains intact.

What should traders watch next?

The near-term levels form a sequence in CaptionGold_Trader's analysis. The Fibonacci 0.786 reference sits near $4,098, ahead of the $4,075 order block. Initial resistance begins at $4,110–$4,120. A close above roughly $4,154, followed by a successful retest, would point toward $4,190–$4,195. A close below $4,075.326 and a failed reclaim would shift attention to $4,027–$4,045, then $3,959–$3,993.

CaptionGold_Trader leaves traders with a choice: trust a higher low around $4,075, or wait for buyers to reclaim the entire $4,154 rejection block. For now, the chart keeps the recovery structure intact while making the $4,075 order block the immediate test. Tuesday's October CPI release at 13:30 UTC carries the heaviest weight: softer inflation supports a defended retest, while a hotter core reading puts $4,027–$4,045 in play.