Goldman Crushes Estimates While JPMorgan Stumbles in Rare Miss

By Grace Kim

JPMorgan missed on both revenue and earnings for the first time in nearly three years this week, while Goldman Sachs — its closest dealmaking peer — beat estimates on both lines. That split, disclosed Tuesday, frames a messy quarter for Wall Street's largest banks and a dealmaking backdrop that executives insist is pausing, not cracking.

Bank of America opened the week's final act Wednesday morning with a third-quarter profit drop. Morgan Stanley beat on the top and bottom lines, largely as expected after Citigroup did the same a day earlier. Wells Fargo missed on revenue despite topping earnings estimates: the bank reported $21.87 billion in revenue against a $22.31 billion consensus. It's the third revenue miss in the past four quarters for Wells.

The surprise sat with JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank by assets and market cap — roughly $881 billion. Rising expenses and weaker fixed-income trading dragged down the numbers.

Why did Goldman win where JPMorgan lost?

Both firms saw relative softness in fixed income, currencies, and commodities. Goldman covered it with a equities machine that doesn't compare: equities revenue surged 72% year over year. That single number explains most of the divergence between two banks often treated as interchangeable rivals.

Goldman crushed consensus for both revenue and earnings per share. JPMorgan, for the first time in almost three years, did neither. Same market, different engines.

What's happening to the IPO pipeline?

The deals calendar tells a story of delay. Oura postponed its IPO plans in late September. Bamboo Insurance and Holtec Nuclear pulled back shortly before that. The string of postponements landed just as the banks reported their mixed results.

But bank executives are betting the lull won't last. JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum told reporters on a media call that IPOs are being "delayed rather than cancelled," and described the firm's deal pipeline as "very, very strong."

"There are a lot of deals that need to get done that want to get done," Barnum said. "Maybe in moments of a little bit of market turmoil, you see, especially in the capital markets space, the gap between buyers and sellers can widen temporarily before we find a new level. So we'll see how it goes. But overall, the conditions remain very supportive."

Goldman CEO David Solomon acknowledged on the earnings call that activity got "a little bit softer" in September, but he framed it as a valuation gap, not a closed window. "The IPO market was wide open," he told analysts. "It's just if you expected a valuation and you got something 10% to 15% less, you might choose not to go forward–you might choose to wait."

Are IPOs cancelled or just waiting?

Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, drew the same line between postponement and cancellation. "After an active summer, suddenly we're now in a rising-rate environment and investors are questioning AI valuations," he said. "So, I think the IPO pipeline will take some time to digest that new reality compared to the enthusiasm they were seeing earlier in the year."

Kennedy added: "It's not like companies are canceling their IPOs. I think they're prepping them, filing confidentially, selecting banks, and giving themselves optionality for when market conditions are ripe."

The numbers back him up. Despite the mixed earnings and the string of delays, 2026 remains on pace to beat last year's deal count, according to Renaissance Capital. The year has already set a record for IPO proceeds — even without counting SpaceX's blockbuster June offering.

What could restart the deal flow?

Kennedy pointed to one "single-biggest catalyst" for a pickup: an end to the Iran war. "That would bring down oil prices and maybe kickstart some of that deal flow again," he said. "It might help with inflation and the rate environment too. A lot of these things are connected."

He also flagged a successful Anthropic IPO next month as a positive signal for the broader market.

The near-term read: banks posted uneven numbers, issuers hit pause, and both sides expect the calendar to refill once valuations and rates settle. Barnum's "very, very strong" pipeline gets its test in the fourth quarter.