Gold’s 4,074.9 Friday settle sets up a Monday short setup

By Nathan Brooks

December COMEX gold futures settled at 4,074.9 on Friday, down 38.6 points or 0.94%, while gaining 176.0 points, or 4.51%, over the week, MyAlgoIndex reported.

The contract traded between 4,116.2 and 4,035.1. MyAlgoIndex classified those prints as a lower high and lower low against Thursday, ending a run of two higher settlements.

MyAlgoIndex’s weekly comparison started from a 3,898.9 settlement on 10/30/26. Friday’s pullback therefore left December gold 176.0 points above the prior settle despite ending the immediate advance.

Thursday’s high printed in the 7:00 PM ET bar, while Friday’s low came in the 8:30 AM ET bar carrying the employment report, according to MyAlgoIndex. Cash hours held between 4,039.3 and 4,088.2 before the contract settled at 49.1% of its range.

The news-feed calendar cited by MyAlgoIndex showed payrolls rising 165,000 against a forecast of 70,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the dollar index gained 0.74% to 102.30, and the 10-year yield closed at 4.86%.

A macro-feed headline in MyAlgoIndex’s review tied gold’s drop below 4,100 to rising expectations of a Fed rate increase. The review classified that explanation as attributed commentary. Silver fell 0.83%, while the gold-to-silver ratio eased to 78.45.

MyAlgoIndex’s composite multi-indicator reading stood at 32% sell, with weak strength and the weakest direction. That compared with 16% sell in the prior session and 88% sell a week earlier. Negative direction led both of the review’s directional systems.

The settlement remained above the 5-day and 9-day settlement averages, MyAlgoIndex said. It fell back below the 20-day average at 4,080.7 after one settle above it, while the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day averages remained higher still.

MyAlgoIndex’s bias was neutral to lower beneath Pivot R1 at 4,115.7 and Friday’s 4,116.2 high. A rebound into that band was the more likely first test, with a stall below it forming the base case. Globex reopens at 6:00 PM ET Sunday after two days of weekend headline exposure, with R1 above and Pivot S1 at 4,034.6 below as gap references.

Key levels

MyAlgoIndex identified these resistance levels for the December contract:

• 4,156.5 — Pivot R2
• 4,155.8 — Thursday’s session high
• 4,149.8 — One-standard-deviation resistance
• 4,116.2 — Friday’s session high
• 4,115.7 — Pivot R1
• 4,107.9 — 18-day average crossing stall
• 4,103.6 — 38.2% retracement from the four-week high
• 4,080.7 — 20-day settlement average

MyAlgoIndex listed the following support levels, also for December gold:

• 4,074.9 — Friday’s settlement
• 4,060.8 — Midpoint of the four-week range
• 4,035.1 — Friday’s session low
• 4,034.6 — Pivot S1
• 4,018.0 — 38.2% retracement from the four-week low
• 4,000.0 — One-standard-deviation support
• 3,994.3 — Pivot S2

The Monday trade

MyAlgoIndex’s primary setup calls for a short in the December contract from a 4,105-4,115 entry band. The entry sits below Pivot R1 and Friday’s high, around the 4,107.9 stall of the 18-day crossing. The proposed stop is 4,135, above R1 and Friday’s high but below one-standard-deviation resistance at 4,149.8.

The first target is 4,085, just below the 4,086.2 raw stochastic projection. The second is 4,060, below the four-week midpoint at 4,060.8, and the third is 4,035, above Pivot S1 at 4,034.6. From the entry midpoint, MyAlgoIndex estimated risk-reward at roughly 1:1, 1:2 and 1:3 for the three targets.

The 14-day average true range was 86.6 points, against a 25-point stop distance from the entry midpoint. For traders, that makes the proposed stop tight relative to the contract’s recent daily movement. A settle above Pivot R2 at 4,156.5 negates the thesis, while two consecutive 30-minute closes above 4,115 remove the edge before the stop is reached.

Weekend escalation or a softer dollar at Sunday’s reopen could carry gold through the stop in one move, MyAlgoIndex said. The contract’s 176.0-point weekly gain is the main risk to the short. The review frames the trade as an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 should be sold.

What does the setup change for gold traders?

It turns a broadly bearish reading into a conditional, level-specific trade. MyAlgoIndex expects a rebound toward 4,105-4,115 and a stall there, rather than an immediate breakdown. Two 30-minute closes above 4,115 weaken the setup, while a settlement above 4,156.5 negates it.

Friday’s 4,074.9 settlement gave back part of Wednesday’s and Thursday’s gains after the employment report lifted the dollar, MyAlgoIndex said. Monday’s test is whether gold rebounds into the 4,103.6-4,116.2 band and stalls, or clears Thursday’s 4,155.8 high and Pivot R2 at 4,156.5.

For Monday, MyAlgoIndex’s base case remains a defended ceiling near 4,115.7-4,116.2. Weekend escalation or dollar softness remains the clearest route through the 4,135 stop.