Halloween Candy Sales Fall 6.7% as Fuel Costs Shrink Shopping Bags

By Daniel Okafor

Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% in the month ending Oct. 17 compared with the same period last year, according to NielsenIQ. The market research firm also recorded an 11.7% decline in mid-September. That drop erased the preseason gains Halloween candy had posted the previous two years.

The cause sits at the gas pump as much as the candy aisle. As of Friday, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. stood at $4.29, up nearly 40% from a year earlier.

What is driving the pullback?

Chris Costagli, a vice president and food thought leader at NielsenIQ, said high gas prices have deepened Americans' concerns about affordability and are dampening demand for Halloween treats.

"I think what you're seeing now is a consumer that's spending so much additional money on fuel and housing and clothing and food," Costagli said. "Some of the decisions they're making about Halloween candy, it's not necessarily because, 'I notice it's more expensive than last year,' it's, 'I can't afford it this year because I've paid so much more for so many other things. I just don't have the financial means to buy it this year.'"

The shift shows up in package size. Small bags of candy were the only sizes posting sales growth through mid-October, Costagli noted. Large and extra-large bags saw the biggest declines.

How expensive has candy become?

Candy prices have outpaced general inflation for several years. Government data show candy and gum prices rose 44% over the five years through September. Prices for all food eaten at home rose 22.5% over the same period.

A concrete comparison makes the jump plain. This week, discount grocer Aldi advertised a 135-piece variety pack of Mars Inc. chocolate bars — including Milky Way, Trix and Snickers — for $19.87. Five years ago, that money bought a 250-piece pack.

Why cocoa keeps climbing

Cocoa is the main culprit behind chocolate inflation. Global cocoa prices hit a record $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poor weather in West Africa, which supplies 70% of the world's chocolate, and speculative trading in the cocoa futures market drove the spike.

Prices then fell steadily, reaching $3,241 per metric ton in March. The rebound started in spring, when the Iran war disrupted Africa's fertilizer supplies. The El Niño weather pattern adds another layer of pressure, with hot, dry conditions expected through February.

Do lower prices help?

Not so far. Costagli noted that demand stayed muted even where prices fell. The average price of non-chocolate Halloween candy, such as gummies and lollipops, was $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks ending Oct. 17 — about 3% lower than last year, according to Nielsen data. The discount did not lift sales.

Sally Lyons Wyatt, a global executive vice president and food industry adviser at the market research company Circana, said consumers are coping with higher grocery prices by making smaller, more frequent supermarket trips and buying products right before they intend to use them. That behavior raises the possibility that shoppers are simply waiting until closer to Halloween to buy candy this year.

"People are very intentional and thoughtful about what they want to consume, not just for holidays, but in general," she said. "I do believe we will still see softness overall with candy, but I don't think Halloween is doomed."

Will the peak season rescue sales?

The industry is betting on it. The National Confectioners Association, a trade group representing candy makers including Mars, Smarties Candy Co. and Ferrera Candy Co., said it remains optimistic.

"We are just now entering the peak period for Halloween and consumer enthusiasm remains incredibly strong," the group said Friday in a statement.

The next two weeks will test that claim. If Lyons Wyatt's late-shopping theory holds, a share of the 6.7% decline could recover before Oct. 31. If cocoa's supply chain pressures keep pushing chocolate costs upward, small bags may remain the growth category well past this Halloween.