Iran Vows Global Retaliation as Trump Weighs Post-Midterm Strike

Iran has threatened retaliation "without any geographical limitations" and ordered its armed forces to target "all kinds of financial and non-financial assets," raising the stakes as President Donald Trump weighs a new attack after Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections.

Trump said he's contemplating "another little Epic Fury" once the midterms are over. The U.S. has already sent a third aircraft carrier and a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, and has told regional allies to prepare for a possible short but intense renewal of fighting, according to the Wall Street Journal.

What did Iran's leadership say?

On Saturday, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei warned Iran's response to any new strike would be "without any geographical limitations." He added that the "data bank of targets should be updated so that the armed forces could hit all kinds of financial and non-financial assets."

Iran has spent recent weeks signaling exactly what that means. It has warned that undersea internet cables and data centers would be targets. A foiled attack on a British air base used by U.S. forces has been attributed to Tehran.

The financial angle isn't hypothetical. North Koreans have been blamed for the $6.3 billion crypto heist at Binance, and the episode shows how vulnerable such assets are to Iran, which is also adept at cyberattacks. Separately, the Pentagon is investigating whether hackers pushed freezers at hundreds of French supermarkets to 122 degrees Fahrenheit near U.S. military bases.

How far does Iran's reach go?

The RAND think tank pointed out last week that hostile Iranian activity "spans the globe," with proxy Hezbollah operating in Latin America and reported plots against civilians in Europe.

"Unbound and bent on revenge, Iran is unlikely to be contained to just one corner of the globe," RAND analysts wrote. They argued the least bad option for the U.S. would be to continue its naval blockade and not launch new attacks.

Has Iran's strategy changed?

Diplomacy is ongoing, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging messages through intermediaries. Neither side has budged from its initial demands, dampening hopes for a breakthrough in the coming days.

For Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group, the most important development was Khamenei's message itself.

"This language suggests a further evolution in Iran's military strategy," Azizi posted on X on Saturday. "Since the beginning of the war, Tehran has increasingly moved away from its traditional emphasis on proportionate response and retaliation toward a more offensive approach aimed at imposing costs on adversaries. The latest statements appear to take this logic a step further."

Azizi cited remarks from another top official indicating Iran could stage a preemptive strike if preparations for hostile action were confirmed. Khamenei also insisted Iran would determine when and how any renewed conflict ends.

Iran is wary of further diplomacy for a concrete reason: previous attacks came even in the middle of talks with the U.S. early this year and last summer.

"Iran appears increasingly determined to prevent a repetition of previous scenarios in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed military conflict," Azizi said. "From Tehran's perspective, the objective is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington would have to reconsider the option altogether."

Why oil markets are bracing for generational damage

Iran still has thousands of missiles and drones in its arsenal, weapons capable of inflicting catastrophic damage on its neighbors in the Persian Gulf. U.S. interceptor stockpiles have already been depleted to critically low levels, and newer Iranian missiles have demonstrated the ability to evade air-defense systems.

The region's energy infrastructure sustained heavy damage earlier in the war and can't absorb another round of fighting, according to Amir Handjani, a board member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. U.S. military bases across the Middle East have also been heavily damaged by Iranian drones and missiles.

"Gulf producers spent five decades persuading the world that their supply could withstand regional wars. Eight months of fighting on two fronts have badly weakened that case. A negotiated end to the war would give the region time to rebuild it," Handjani wrote.

"Another round, on top of the Saudi-Houthi war, would leave damage to infrastructure and to importers' confidence that markets are likely to carry for a generation."

With hardened rhetoric, depleted defenses and no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, the odds of the war returning now look greater — and global financial assets, not just Gulf oil terminals, sit in the target set.