Kalshi Hits $40 Billion Valuation, Overtaking Polymarket in $1 Billion Raise

Kalshi closed a $1 billion funding round that values the prediction markets platform at $40 billion, overtaking its main rival Polymarket, according to figures confirmed by co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour in an interview on Wednesday evening, October 29.

The New York Times first reported the deal. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management led the round, which the market widely reads as a Series G and as the last financing before a possible initial public offering.

Mansour stayed deliberately vague on the IPO question. He did not confirm when, or even if, a listing will happen, saying only that "there have been discussions" on the subject.

How fast did the valuation move?

The round nearly doubled Kalshi's price tag in six months. In its previous round, held in May 2026, investors valued the company at $22 billion. The new $40 billion figure lands Kalshi comfortably ahead of Polymarket, which was finalizing its own funding round in August led by 1789 Capital — the venture capital firm of Donald Trump Jr. — at a $21 billion valuation.

There is a Trump connection on Kalshi's side too: Donald Trump works as a paid consultant for the company.

The Series G brought in a heavyweight investor lineup. Beyond Sequoia and Wellington, participants included:

• Baillie Gifford
• Morgan Stanley Investment Management
• Coatue Management
• Andreessen Horowitz

Kalshi was co-founded by 29-year-old Brazilian Luana Lopes Lara, giving the raise a notable angle for founders and investors tracking Latin American talent building US financial infrastructure.

In plain terms: a company that regulators keep dragging into court just convinced some of the biggest names in venture capital to pay nearly double its May price.

What about the regulatory fight?

The valuation arrives while Kalshi fights legal challenges in more than a dozen US states. Those states have gone to court to demand that prediction market platforms comply with state gambling laws.

Kalshi's position is that it operates under federal jurisdiction because its contracts function as financial instruments, not bets.

Mansour draws a historical parallel: the decades-long debate over grain futures contracts, which also pitted federal and state regulators against each other before the federal framework prevailed.

Investors, for their part, appear unbothered. They say the regulatory challenges were expected and are already factored into the $40 billion valuation.

The takeaway: Kalshi's backers are betting the courts will treat event contracts like commodities, not casino games — and that a $40 billion entry price today looks cheap if an IPO follows.