Kazakhstan's $10 Billion Nvidia Bet Shows How to Play Both AI Blocs

By Grace Kim

Three weeks. That's all it took Kazakhstan's AI minister Zhaslan Madiyev to move from Washington to Shanghai. In June, he joined the U.S.-led Pax Silica group on AI supply chains. Three weeks later, he signed Kazakhstan up as a founding member of China's World AI Cooperation Organization.

That double play captures the core dilemma of the global AI race. The U.S. and China are dividing the world into rival AI blocs — and the countries caught in between are scrambling to take the best of both before the window closes.

The choice is stark: America's most advanced chips and frontier AI, or China's cheaper, open-source systems. Experts say the period of free choice may be narrowing.

Why is Kazakhstan the model hedger?

Kazakhstan, a Central Asian nation of about 21 million people, sits in what former diplomat Dana Masalimova calls a "very precarious spot." It benefits from both U.S. and Chinese investment simultaneously.

The country holds rich critical mineral resources essential to AI development, plus cheap electricity to power data centers — a politically fraught issue in the U.S.

The numbers tell the story:

• Earlier this year, Kazakhstan signed an investment deal worth up to $10 billion involving Nvidia to build a "data center valley."
• Chinese foreign direct investment hit a record $2.8 billion in 2025, according to local officials.
• In July, Chinese leader Xi Jinping met Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to expand Belt and Road cooperation.

"Everyone is hedging," said Masalimova, now an independent scholar and center associate at Harvard's Kathryn W. and Shelby Cullom Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. "We don't want this binary choice."

How do Washington and Beijing differ in their pitch?

President Donald Trump insisted last month that "whoever wins AI, wins." U.S. officials and AI companies have accused China of large-scale "distillation" — extracting capabilities from frontier American models. Beijing rejects that and says Washington is pursuing an AI monopoly while restricting China's access to cutting-edge chips and chipmaking machinery.

The State Department drew a hard line: "Countries can't be trusted partners in Pax Silica while substantively engaging in initiatives that advance a competing vision for super intelligence."

The Chinese embassy in Washington countered: "AI should not be owned by major countries."

Kyle Chan, a fellow at The Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Center, explains the asymmetry: Beijing must court third countries to build an alternative coalition, while Washington already has a powerful ally network. That gives real leverage to what he calls "swing countries."

Which other countries are sitting on the fence?

Indonesia joined China's World AI Cooperation Organization while holding nickel and copper resources vital for AI. "We should be able to be part of both, put it that way. And choose the best system," said Mari Pangestu, vice chair of Indonesia's National Economic Council, speaking at a University of Hong Kong Business School event.

Singapore hosts Anthropic's latest Asia office yet says it is considering joining China's AI organization.

Saudi Arabia runs both tracks at once. In September, the AI startup Humain unveiled a platform built on an open model by a Chinese AI company — while the kingdom separately holds a deal with Nvidia to expand AI computing with its advanced chips.

France is trying a third path. Its startup Mistral released a model this month that outperforms some advanced Chinese models. Japan stays strategically aligned with the U.S. on semiconductors and trusted AI, but Kyoto's University of Foreign Studies professor Takahiro Tsuchiya says it won't reject cheaper Chinese models for "lower-risk applications."

Can anyone challenge the two leaders?

Not really. For countries like the U.K. and Germany — substantial economies without self-developed frontier models — U.S. alignment may be vital for data center and chip deals, according to Anton Leicht and Sam Winter-Levy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their access to advanced AI, they said, "depends on the whims of policymakers in Washington and Beijing."

China keeps closing the gap in chipmaking and AI capability, though it still trails top U.S. technology for now. Its open-source approach lets countries reduce reliance on the U.S., and Beijing funds AI ecosystems abroad: AidData at William & Mary counts Chinese grants and loans touching AI in at least 77 low- and middle-income countries, including Nigeria, Zambia, Ghana, Bangladesh, Senegal, Cameroon and Kenya. Pew Research Center findings show people in middle-income countries increasingly trust China on AI and its regulation.

"Every country in the world in some way or another is thinking about AI sovereignty," said Aalok Mehta, director of the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His blunt caveat: "Maybe no other country than the U.S. and China can really build these very large, powerful models."

That math leaves most capitals hedging — until Washington or Beijing forces the choice.