Lilly Claims 70% of 700,000 New Medicare GLP-1 Seniors

Eli Lilly has captured 70% of the 700,000 seniors who started GLP-1 treatments since Medicare coverage of obesity drugs launched in July, CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC in an exclusive interview on Monday.

The figure is the clearest signal yet of how the coverage is expanding access to weight-loss medicines — and which company is winning the new patients. Lilly's chief rival in the obesity market is Novo Nordisk.

Ricks called the rollout "very encouraging" and said the expansion of the broader GLP-1 market "is what we had hoped."

The coverage runs through a temporary program called Bridge. Eligible beneficiaries obtain weight-loss drugs for a $50 monthly co-pay. Medicare, the federal program for people age 65 and older or with disabilities, covers about 66 million people.

Through Bridge, seniors can access Lilly's blockbuster obesity injection Zepbound, Lilly's newly launched obesity pill Foundayo, and Novo's competing Wegovy pill and blockbuster injection sold under the same name.

Zepbound appears to be the biggest winner so far.

"We're capturing about seven out of 10 of those new patients, and a lot are still on Zepbound," Ricks said. "I think we still see physicians focusing on those with the most body weight and the most complications. That's where Zepbound plays a big role."

Foundayo serves a different slice of the market: patients seeking a convenient option who "maybe just need to lose 25 to 30 pounds," Ricks said. The pill launched in April, a few months behind Novo's oral entrant. Even so, Ricks told CNBC that one-third of new patients on oral GLP-1s are taking Foundayo.

The rollout itself has run smoothly, according to Ricks. He said he hasn't heard of many logistical issues, and credited the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services with doing "a nice job rolling this out" — educating physicians and working with both companies and the insurance system.

The numbers mark an early but consequential data point in the contest between Lilly and Novo for the Medicare population. If Lilly holds its seven-in-ten share as the temporary Bridge program matures and more seniors enroll, the company would enter any permanent coverage arrangement with a decisive installed base among the roughly 66 million Americans on Medicare.