McDonald's Plots $8.5 Billion Overhaul Around Protein, GLP-1 Users

McDonald's is weighing an $8.5 billion, decade-long transformation of its U.S. restaurants built around protein-heavy, portion-controlled items aimed at the growing ranks of GLP-1 users and calorie-conscious diners.

The "McDonald's Next" plan, unveiled at the company's investor day in September, contemplates grilled chicken sandwiches and wraps, crispy chicken and burger bowls, and egg bites. It is the chain's most direct response to the decline of the "supersize" era that defined its brand for two decades.

"We're going to evolve our menu to make sure it reflects where we think that consumer is going to be looking for in the future," CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a CNBC interview this week.

How big is the GLP-1 opportunity?

McDonald's puts the near-term addressable market at roughly 90 million Americans. Skye Anderson, president of McDonald's USA, told investors that about 30 million U.S. adults now use GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. The company's own research, Anderson said, shows another 60 million Americans are actively seeking more protein in their diets.

A Gallup poll in July found 11% of American adults use GLP-1s, a figure consistent with McDonald's 30 million estimate based on an adult population of 269.8 million, per Kids Count Data Center.

Are these customers already buying Big Macs?

Yes, and McDonald's says the chain is not chasing a new demographic. Anderson said 84% of households with a GLP-1 user already visit McDonald's. The goal is to keep them, not to recruit them. Those households are already shifting toward higher-protein items and more flexible portion sizes, she said.

In April, McDonald's began flagging 17 protein-forward items with badges in its app and at kiosks. The company says more than 30 menu items now contain at least 15 grams of protein.

What are GLP-1 users actually ordering?

Research from Circana shows GLP-1 patients are not abandoning restaurants. They are reworking their baskets. The firm found GLP-1 users trimmed the average number of items per visit by about 1%, but pulled back sharply on sides, snacks and breads. Sixty-three percent of GLP-1 users want more vegetables; 55% want more fruit.

"Restaurants continue to adapt and grow with those trends," said David Portalatin, senior vice president at Circana. "With GLP-1 usage, the biggest change to restaurants won't be that consumers stop going out to eat, it will be how they go out to eat and what they order."

Circana estimates households with a GLP-1 user accounted for 23% of U.S. households in 2025. The firm projects those households will represent 35% of all food and beverage units sold by 2030.

The National Restaurant Association found GLP-1 users logged 7.6 restaurant purchases in the week before its survey, compared with 5.1 for non-users. Nearly half of GLP-1 users, however, said they dine out less often than before starting treatment.

Can protein carry the next growth cycle?

McDonald's is not alone in making that bet. Euromonitor says high-protein foods, beverages and supplements generated more than $3 trillion in global retail sales in 2025. The research firm projects global protein demand will rise 11% from 2024 to 2029, with GLP-1 users, older adults and resistance-training consumers driving the increase.

A 2026 study in Food Policy found GLP-1 use increased consumers' willingness to pay for most protein products examined. "GLP-1 use is reshaping U.S. food demand, creating uncertainty throughout the food system and requiring improved understanding of potential consequences," the study read. "Industry responses indicate the protein sector is especially important."

"Rather than viewing supplements as a separate health regimen, younger consumers increasingly see function as something that can be incorporated into the products they're already consuming throughout the day," Scott Dicker, senior director of market insights at SPINS, told Fortune.

What's the risk for McDonald's?

The chain is committing $8.5 billion over a decade to a remodel, training and technology push at a moment when its core menu is being reshaped by drugs and dietary trends it did not create. If Circana's projection holds and GLP-1 households do reach 35% of U.S. food and beverage units sold by 2030, the chains that build a protein-first identity first stand to capture the highest-margin basket shift in two decades. If they do not, an $8.5 billion capital outlay and a portfolio reset could weigh on same-store sales just as the U.S. quick-service market softens.