McDonald's Stock Jumps 6.4% as It Races to Rebuild Its Value Menu

McDonald's shares jumped 6.4% on Wednesday — their best day since April 6, 2020 — after the burger chain said it will roll out new value meals next year in response to a fast-food discount war that is reshaping how Americans eat out.

CEO Chris Kempczinski told analysts on the company's third-quarter earnings call that McDonald's launched an eight-week test of two value menu formats last week in roughly 1,900 restaurants across a handful of U.S. regions. The formats are mix-and-match combos and "fixed" bundles — set combinations of items. The winning format, he said, will be whichever customers prefer and which fits best with restaurant operations.

Takeaway: McDonald's is not guessing at a new discount menu; it is running a controlled experiment at nearly one in eight of its U.S. locations.

What did Kempczinski promise?

The company aims to take the new value program nationwide in early 2027. That is a long runway for a chain under traffic pressure, and it leaves competitors more than a year to respond.

"Our goal is straightforward: Customers should see a clear and compelling value proposition every time they consider McDonald's, whether they're looking for an affordable individual item, a complete meal or a digital offer in the mobile app," Kempczinski said on the call.

The promise carries weight because McDonald's own track record is mixed. Management said in August that changes to the McValue discount menu, combined with an array of overlapping promotions, confused consumers and complicated work for staff. Executives admitted at the time that the chain's most loyal customers were visiting stores less often.

Takeaway: A clear value message is the fix; the risk is that McDonald's has already tried one and made things murkier.

How weak was the traffic picture?

U.S. visits to McDonald's fell 6.2% in the third quarter, according to consumer data firm Numerator. Same-store sales in the U.S. slipped 0.2% over the same period. Globally, same-store sales rose 1.5%.

Kempczinski countered that the picture improved late in the quarter. He said he was "encouraged by our baseline traffic trends in September and October," and that U.S. same-store sales turned positive in September after dipping in July and August.

Digital offers did some of the lifting. A $2 breakfast sandwich and free fries with a $1 minimum purchase helped attract new and lapsed loyalty members, he said. One month of recovery, though, does not reverse a quarter of decline.

Takeaway: The September rebound is real but thin — it follows two weak months and a 6.2% traffic drop.

What did the numbers show?

Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.57, beating FactSet estimates of $3.38. Revenue of $7.16 billion missed estimates of $7.28 billion.

Investors focused on the turnaround plans rather than the revenue miss. Even after Wednesday's rally, the stock trades around $279 — down 9.1% for the year and well off highs above $340 reached earlier this year. That gap frames the size of the credibility test ahead for management.

Takeaway: A profit beat bought goodwill; the stock still has roughly a fifth of its value to recover from its 2025 peak.

What about the big menu overhaul?

In September, executives announced what they called the company's biggest menu upgrade ever: new chicken sandwiches, wings and wraps, hand-breaded chicken, fresher coffee and larger burgers.

Not everyone in the system is on board. An analyst at BTIG reported that some franchisees complained about the cost of adding hand-breaded chicken and questioned whether the birds themselves might be too big. McDonald's did not publicly address those franchisee concerns on the call.

Takeaway: The menu push looks ambitious on paper; franchisee economics could decide whether it survives contact with kitchens.

Who is winning the burger wars?

Among McDonald's, Wendy's and Restaurant Brands International's Burger King, Burger King was the only chain to grow traffic in the third quarter, according to Numerator, helped by higher-income households trading down. Burger King has also recently made major changes to its menus and restaurants.

Wendy's, which has struggled to keep pace, recently received a $1.4 billion takeover offer from Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management. Consolidation pressure is now part of the competitive backdrop McDonald's faces.

Takeaway: McDonald's is fighting a rival with momentum and another that may soon have new owners.

Can drinks carry the strategy?

Management flagged new specialty beverages as a bright spot. Chief Financial Officer Ian Borden said checks that included one of those beverages ran roughly 50% higher than the full-day average, with most sold after lunch, when the traffic rush dies down.

The Red Bull Dragonberry Energizer has been particularly popular, Borden said. Kempczinski added that McDonald's is remodeling restaurants in part to create more space to sell drinks — a bet that beverages can lift average tickets even when burgers are discounted.

Takeaway: Higher-margin drinks may offset the cost of cheaper food, but only if customers keep buying them.

The next hard data point arrives when the eight-week test concludes; until then, the 2027 timeline rests on early readings from 1,900 kitchens.