McKinsey: 11 Million Americans Must Switch Occupations by 2035

Roughly 11 million Americans may have to leave a shrinking occupation for an entirely different one by 2035, according to new McKinsey Global Institute research on the U.S. workforce. That works out to an average of 770,000 workers a year crossing occupational lines over the next decade — 3.6 times the historical rate.

The McKinsey study finds the U.S. economy will have more jobs by 2035 than today, not fewer. But the mix will differ, and many workers will need to retrain or earn new credentials to fill them. COVID-19 produced a comparable surge in occupational switching, the researchers note, but that lasted a year or two. This one will last at least a decade.

Where Will Automation Hit Hardest?

Office and administrative support faces the largest job losses by 2035. McKinsey calculates that automation could take on 80 percent of the hours currently worked in that occupational group.

The research points to one concrete transition: the administrative assistant who has spent a decade keeping a department running has a viable path to project manager, a growing role with more pay. Assistants already plan, schedule, coordinate operations, document decisions and manage stakeholders — tasks that occupy about 58 percent of a project manager's job. The remaining gap covers project-scheduling methods, process improvement, forecasting, quality management and business development.

The real barrier is credentialing, not capability. Many project-manager postings require a bachelor's degree and a professional certification. "The binding constraint isn't whether they can do the job. It's whether they're willing to invest thousands of dollars and several years to prove it," the McKinsey authors write.

Why Are Harder Transitions Stalling?

Not every pathway is realistic. A dishwasher seeking to become a home health aide — a growing occupation — has only about 20 percent of the required skills. Certification demands a month of instruction, and many employers prefer a nursing assistant credential that takes longer. Even then, 92 percent of healthcare support jobs sit in the bottom two wage quintiles.

A packager moving into production fabrication fares better. About 52 percent of their skills — lifting, quality control, operating equipment like forklifts — would transfer, the move brings a meaningful raise, and no credential requirement stands in the way. What remains is learning mechanical assembly, drilling, fine motor skills, equipment-specific training and advanced quality-control procedures.

What Role Do Credentials Play?

Credentials are the most common hurdle, required in 85 percent of growing jobs. McKinsey breaks that down:

• About 38 percent are mandated by law, concentrated where safety and public trust are at stake.
• Another 47 percent reflect employer preferences for a degree, certificate or job title.

Nearly half the credential problem is a hiring convention rather than a safety rule — and conventions are easier to change, the researchers argue.

Cost is the other constraint. A worker with modest savings or a child to care for can rationally decline a pathway that pays off over 10 years because it first requires months without pay. Even short training programs can be unaffordable in the only currency that matters: forgone wages.

What Are Employers Signaling?

Since 2022, job postings demanding AI fluency have risen elevenfold, postings seeking adaptability fivefold, and those requiring resilience, curiosity and willingness to learn threefold. More than 70 percent of workers will need new skills even if they never change employers.

McKinsey puts the onus on employers, arguing a company laying off administrative staff in one division while posting project-coordinator openings in another has created its own talent shortage. Hiring on demonstrated skills, dropping degree screens no law requires, running practical assessments and building apprenticeships costs less than hiring a credentialed outsider, the research finds.

States can help by pruning occupational licensing requirements and making credentials modular and stackable, so short qualifications add up into longer ones. Colleges and training agencies can design programs backward from what growing occupations require and publish graduate earnings. Governments can subsidize education and offer tax incentives for retraining — for individuals and for companies that help workers attain new skills.

The closing argument is direct: workers cannot shorten a licensing timeline, self-fund a year without pay, or buy time on a fabrication line. Whether the administrative assistant — and millions like her — acquires the other half of the project-manager skill set depends largely on the employers and institutions that set the terms of work.