Merck Q3 Earnings: Keytruda Qlex Hits $830 Million as Guidance Rises

Merck hiked its full-year adjusted profit outlook to between $2.77 and $2.82 per share on Thursday, after third-quarter earnings and revenue beat Wall Street estimates on stronger-than-expected sales of its immunotherapy Keytruda, including its newer injectable form.

The new guidance is up from a previous range of $2.66 to $2.76 per share. It also absorbs a one-time charge of $400 million, or 12 cents per share, tied to Merck's licensing agreement with the Chinese cancer drugmaker SciBrunch. On the revenue side, Merck narrowed the low end of its 2026 outlook: it now expects sales of $66.8 billion to $67.3 billion, compared with the prior range of $66.3 billion to $67.3 billion.

Here's how the quarter stacked up against Wall Street's expectations, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: $2.49 adjusted vs. $2.08 expected
• Revenue: $18.09 billion vs. $17.31 billion expected

The bottom line: even with acquisition and restructuring costs stripped in, Merck cleared the bar by 41 cents.

How big was the Keytruda number?

Keytruda pulled in $8.60 billion in quarterly sales, beating the $7.73 billion analysts were expecting, according to StreetAccount. Within that, the under-the-skin version, Keytruda Qlex, booked $830 million — its best quarter since launching in 2025 and well above the $649 million analysts had penciled in.

That pace puts Qlex on a credible path to blockbuster status, meaning more than $1 billion in annual sales.

Why is the injectable version so important?

The stakes run straight to 2028. Keytruda's key patents begin expiring that year, and Merck is positioning Qlex as a cornerstone of its growth strategy. The plan: transition patients from the original intravenous version to the injection, which is considered more convenient, in order to defend market share and sustain Keytruda's blockbuster sales beyond the original version's loss of exclusivity.

The company has also been on a deal spree as it races to offset the generic competition Keytruda will face after 2028.

What else drove the beat?

Beyond Keytruda, Merck's newer products delivered.

Winrevair, which treats a rare, deadly lung condition, generated $694 million in sales for the quarter, up 93% from the year-earlier period. Analysts were expecting $645 million.

The Gardasil vaccine, which prevents cancers from HPV — a very common sexually transmitted infection — drew about $2 billion in sales on higher U.S. demand, topping the $1.76 billion analysts expected. That rebound matters: just last year, Merck grappled with elevated Gardasil inventory and weak demand in China.

Not everything cleared the bar. Merck's animal health business posted $1.68 billion in sales, slightly below analysts' estimates.

What did the income statement look like?

Merck reported net income of $5.07 billion, or $2.04 per share, for the quarter. That's down from $5.79 billion, or $2.32 per share, in the year-earlier period, reflecting the acquisition and restructuring costs. Revenue of $18.09 billion was up 5% from a year earlier.

Excluding those costs, adjusted earnings came in at $2.49 per share.

The takeaway is simple: Qlex's breakout quarter gives Merck its clearest evidence yet that it can hold Keytruda's franchise together past 2028 — and the raised guidance signals management believes the momentum holds.