Microsoft Nears All-Time Highs, and One Analyst Sees a 2021 Replay

Microsoft stock trades at $524, within reach of its all-time highs, and chart analyst Robert_V12 warns the setup echoes two prior reversals. Writing on TradingView in his Week 47 outlook, he argues the risk of a 10–15% pullback is now harder to ignore.

The comparison is concrete. In 2021, MSFT peaked and then fell more than 35%. In 2024, another strong rally ended in a correction. Earlier this year the stock dropped toward $350–$370 before buyers stepped in and pushed it back toward $530. The same pattern, he notes, is now forming at resistance again.

"I'm not saying Microsoft is about to crash, but I do think the risk of a pullback is getting harder to ignore," Robert_V12 wrote.

Why $560 is the level to beat

The analyst frames the $530–$560 zone as the decisive test on the weekly chart. Microsoft has struggled at these levels before, and the stock is approaching them again after what he calls a pretty impressive recovery.

Two scenarios follow from that zone:

• Breakout: If MSFT clears $560 and holds it on the weekly chart, he sees a move toward $580–$600.
• Rejection: A rejection would not surprise him, given how far the stock has already recovered from its lows.

What happens if buyers fail?

The first level he watches on the downside is $500. Losing it would make him more cautious and bring the $455–$465 area back into focus.

His main downside target sits around $460. That area acted as resistance before MSFT broke through it, and old resistance often turns into new support when prices return. From the current $524, a move back to $460 would mean roughly a 12% correction.

"Nothing unusual for Microsoft, especially when you look at some of its previous declines," he wrote. He adds that he would find MSFT far more interesting around $460 than buying just below $560 resistance — though he concedes there is no guarantee the stock gets there.

Is the long-term trend still intact?

Yes, according to the analysis. Robert_V12 says Microsoft's long-term chart still looks bullish. A green trendline has connected major lows for years, and buyers have defended important areas through several corrections.

He also watches the 40-week moving average. A pullback to $460 that preserves the broader uptrend would look like a healthy correction, not the start of something worse. But if $460 fails and the stock loses its long-term trendline, he would turn much more defensive. The next major historical demand area sits around $350–$370 — not his base case, but a level he keeps on the chart.

Does the business justify the price?

The analyst separates the company from the stock. He still likes Microsoft as a long-term business: Azure benefits from cloud demand, Microsoft 365 generates recurring revenue, and AI could remain a major growth driver for years.

But he sees pressure building on the other side. Microsoft is spending heavily on AI infrastructure, and investors expect those investments to generate substantial returns. Even a company this strong can see its stock fall when expectations run ahead of actual results.

"You can be bullish on Microsoft's future and still think the stock might offer a better entry a few months from now," he wrote.

The levels that matter next

His framework is straightforward:

• Above $560: bullish breakout; he starts watching $580–$600.
• Below $500: first sign the recent rally may be losing strength.
• Around $460: main downside target if the correction develops.
• Below $455: he reassesses the broader structure and watches the rising trendline.

He would not short Microsoft simply because it approaches resistance, but he would not rush to buy here either. Strong rallies have ended at important resistance levels before, and he thinks the next few weekly candles will tell investors a lot. In his words, $560 is the level to beat — and $460 is the area he would love to see tested if buyers lose control. The post carries his standard disclaimer: not financial advice, just the levels he is watching on the chart.