Nasdaq 100 Futures Down 14% From October Record

Nasdaq 100 futures closed Friday at 27,085 — 14.3% below the record high of 31,616.50 set on October 6, according to TradingView chartist JonahHa. Thursday alone stripped 6.4% off the contract, and Friday's overnight session pushed as low as 26,366.50 before buyers stepped back in.

The damage is recent and fast. The month-end path for the front-month contract tells the story: March closed at 23,915, then 27,596 in April, 30,405 in May, 30,524 in June, 28,404 in July, 29,513 in August, 30,699 in September, and 28,534 by end-October. By November 6, the close was 27,085.

What drove the selloff?

Here's the part that matters: this was not a rates move. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29% on the day of the record and at 4.86% on Friday — yields fell alongside the index. That breaks the usual script where rising rates drag tech valuations lower.

The selling also stayed concentrated. The S&P 500 sits just 6.0% below its own October 6 high, while the Nasdaq 100 is down more than double that.

One fundamental pressure point, per JonahHa: the AI build-out runs on power, and power is not cheap. U.S. electricity averaged 19.6 cents per kWh in September — roughly 46% more than in January 2020, based on BLS average price data.

The takeaway: yields eased and the index still fell, so the market is pricing something other than interest rates into AI-heavy names.

What does the chart show?

JonahHa's analysis, built on CME E-mini Nasdaq-100 daily data, maps four technical features:

• Green pitchfork anchored to the June 22 high (30,968), the July 30 low (27,202) and the October 6 record. Thursday and Friday closed below its median line, now near 27,970 — the first closes under it since mid-September.
• Dotted 0.5 line between the median and lower line. Thursday's low at 26,570 stopped about 30 points above it; Friday's low pierced it by roughly 140 points before the close recovered above.
• Turquoise TD box: the 0.618–0.685 retracement of the rise from the March 31 low of 22,961.50 to the record, spanning 26,268–25,688.
• Yellow box: the 1.128–1.27 extension of the July–October leg, spanning 26,637–26,010.

Friday's low landed inside the yellow box, about 100 points above the TD box. The two boxes derive from different swings and overlap at 26,010–26,268 — a confluence zone.

The dotted line falls about 31 points a day and crosses that overlap between roughly November 18 and December 1. "A move into it would test both boxes at once; holding above Friday's low would leave them untouched," JonahHa wrote. "That is the area I'm watching – I hold no position in Nasdaq 100 futures."

The takeaway: one 258-point band now carries the weight of two independent Fibonacci measurements, and the market gets there within two to four weeks if the decline continues at its current pace.

What's next on the macro calendar?

Three dates frame the next test for the trade:

• November 10: U.S. CPI for October, from the BLS
• November 17: Nvidia quarterly results, after the close
• November 25: PCE inflation and the second Q3 GDP estimate, from the BEA

Nvidia's report lands squarely inside the November 18–December 1 window in which the falling dotted line reaches the box overlap — a single earnings print could decide whether both zones get tested at once.

The takeaway: the confluence zone, the calendar and the AI power-cost question converge in the second half of November, making that stretch the decisive window for the Nasdaq 100's 14% drawdown.