Northern Ireland's Economy Grew 2.3% — Faster Than UK and Ireland

Northern Ireland's economic output rose 2.3% in the year to June, outpacing growth in both the UK and the Republic of Ireland over the same period, according to official figures.

The measure, broadly equivalent to UK GDP, also grew 1% over the latest quarter. The comparison with the Republic of Ireland is more complicated than headline numbers suggest. Ireland's GDP jumped 10.2% in the quarter, but its "Modified Domestic Demand" (MDD), which strips out the distorting effects of globalisation, fell 0.8% over the same period. On that underlying basis, Northern Ireland's quarterly growth of 1% was the stronger performance.

The growth was driven by the production sector, which includes manufacturing, while output in the services sector — the largest part of the Northern Ireland economy — also increased over the last 12 months.

One manufacturer riding that momentum is BLK BOX, a gym equipment maker based in Newtownabbey. The company, founded by Greg Bradley 14 years ago, has secured contracts with high-profile customers worldwide, from Manchester United to the PureGym chain. It now employs 180 staff and sells across the EU and in markets including the US, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, India and Australia.

"We have won high profile contracts and expanding internationally across France, Spain, Germany and other countries," Bradley told BBC News NI. He said Covid had made people realise the importance of their health and that "a lot of young people are into going to the gym."

Proving the doubters wrong

"When I started the business 14 years ago I remember someone telling me I would never sell outside of the island of Ireland and I remember thinking, 'I'm going to prove you wrong'. Thankfully, we have been able to do that," he said.

Bradley said the Windsor Framework — the post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland — has given his company an advantage over English competitors. "We've been able to win a contract with a large French gym chain, Stade Français rugby team, so it's actually worked out good for us and we are really doubling down on that."

He said the arrangement still requires explanation for some buyers. "There's still a bit of an education process with it, not everyone knows that we can ship frictionlessly across Europe, they are a bit scared of tariffs but once you explain it, everyone is really interested."

The cost squeeze ahead

While the figures suggest the Northern Ireland economy ended the first half of the year in a position of strength, businesses warn that rising energy and food costs could put them under significant pressure in the months ahead.

Pastry chef Daniel Duckett closed his east Belfast patisserie in the last year and has re-opened in partnership with the Knott's bakery chain in Forestside shopping centre. The partnership gives him protection his own business lacked. Knott's has the buying power for ingredients, so "they can control costs a little bit better than we would have been able to," Duckett said.

"They have been able to absorb a lot more of the costs that we would have been paying before," he added.

Duckett said rising petrol prices in particular will feed into the cost of goods. "We have to think, how much do we deliver to the shops? Because that will also affect our petrol prices that fill up vans that travel across Northern Ireland."

He pointed to a further pressure that many consumers overlook: climate disruption in supplier countries. "I think a lot of people don't realise that the weather and global warming affect a lot of the products we bring in - tropical fruits, vanilla, cocoa, sugar cane. Those are things that are definitely affected by storms and El Niño. I would try to brace myself for that as well," he said.

Looking to the second half of the year, Duckett said vigilance on supply chains will be essential. "For the second half of the year we will have to be vigilant about where those products that have to travel far come from, as petrol prices will have to factor in to that."

For an economy whose first-half growth relied on manufacturing strength, the test for the rest of the year is whether exporters like BLK BOX can keep expanding while food and energy inflation squeezes the consumer-facing businesses that make up the largest share of Northern Ireland's output.