Novig Hits $1.8 Billion in Volume to Take Third Spot in Prediction Markets

Novig handled $1.8 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, making the sports-focused prediction market the third-largest platform in the United States by that measure. The company became a federally regulated prediction market only in August. Kalshi, the long-time leader, recorded $33.3 billion over the same period, and Polymarket U.S. posted $6.3 billion, according to the PM Pulse, a newsletter that tracks prediction market volume using data from research firm Aldrin. Novig sits roughly $300 million ahead of fourth-place Crypto.com, and its volume grew 80% from the previous 30 days.

Sam Schwartz, who runs the newsletter, cautions that these figures exclude combos, or multi-game parlays. Combos can inflate volume without producing proportionally more revenue for the exchange.

How did a newcomer raise so little and climb so fast?

Novig's ascent stands out because of how little money it has raised. Founded in 2021, the company grew modestly and raised $30 million under a sweepstakes-based model that let it operate in certain states. A shift in the legal landscape pushed Novig to become a federally regulated prediction market this year. That move helped it close a $75 million Series B in February at a $500 million valuation. Novig is reportedly raising a new round at a $2 billion valuation, though the company declined to comment on future fundraises.

Its $105 million total is small next to the giants. Kalshi has raised roughly $3.8 billion across 13 funding rounds, according to Tracxn data, including two $1 billion rounds since May. Polymarket has raised about $3.3 billion across eight rounds, including $1 billion from New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange and another $1 billion in a round led by Donald Trump Jr.-backed venture capital firm 1789 Capital.

"There are very few companies I think outside of AI that have achieved our level of growth in the span of two months," Novig cofounder and CEO Jacob Fortinsky told Fortune.

The company has swollen from 20 to 100 employees this year. Much of the growth traces to Sydney Sweeney, the actress and part owner, who starred in a viral ad campaign called "Just Sports" that launched in September. In the 30 days after the campaign began, first-time deposits rose 362% and mobile app downloads jumped 261% compared with the prior 30 days, according to internal data Novig provided. The app briefly hit No. 1 on the App Store's chart of top free sports apps.

Who else is fighting for the remaining market share?

The contest is brutal at the top. Kalshi accounts for roughly 64% of trading volume excluding combos over the past 30 days. Polymarket's U.S. and DeFi arms together hold about 23%. That leaves 13% split among everyone else. Novig captured 3.5%, edging out Crypto.com and DraftKings' DKeX platform for third place. Conventional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel are diving into prediction markets, while smaller startups fight for niches.

Why sports only?

Novig runs a peer-to-peer exchange where users trade against each other, not against the house. The company argues this gives traders tighter prices and lower costs than traditional sportsbooks and most prediction markets.

"That's the main reason Novig saw growth early as a company—it's just such a natural draw to the professional and sophisticated users out there… they want to get the best odds possible," Schwartz explained.

Unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, Novig offers no trades on politics or pop culture, and it requires users to be 21 or older; its larger rivals allow 18-year-olds. Skipping politics means missing headline spikes: on Election Day, Kalshi's politics and election contracts reached $729 million in trading, and over the full week elections drove more than 70% of Kalshi's volume growth excluding combos, according to PM Pulse data.

But Schwartz noted that on most other days this year, elections made up less than half of 1% of Kalshi's daily volume. Sports are on the calendar nearly every day and drive more than 80% of prediction market trading. Novig built its model around that steady pace.

What could stop the growth?

The low-fee pitch works on professionals. It matters less to average bettors. "The majority of users out there are not price sensitive," Schwartz said. DraftKings, FanDuel and Kalshi keep winning customers despite charging more.

A legal battle over sports-related prediction markets is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court next year. Several states have already moved aggressively against the platforms. Kalshi has shrunk its footprint from 50 states to 47 after bans in three states, including Nevada and Michigan, and Schwartz predicts a handful of others may follow. He put the odds of a ruling in June 2027 versus June 2028 at about a coin flip, and said the court would likely need to take the case by mid-January to decide in 2027.

Some in the industry think access could fall from 47 states to 35 or fewer, Schwartz said, which "will significantly reduce [Kalshi] and prediction market current volume and future volume, especially if they lose some of the bigger, more important states." Smaller players, with less market share to fall back on, could feel the squeeze even harder.

Fortinsky remains unbothered. "It's certainly not an existential risk to the company," he said. "We are set up to succeed and to crush the incumbents, no matter what the regulatory environment looks like. We have a stronger team, stronger product, and stronger velocity."

The test will come if the state bans multiply before the justices rule — a window that could stretch into 2028.