Novo Nordisk lifts 2026 outlook as Wegovy pill gains traction

By Daniel Okafor

Novo Nordisk said it raised its 2026 sales and adjusted operating profit growth outlook to -2% to +2% at constant exchange rates. Its shares gained 6% in early Wednesday trading after reporting third-quarter sales 8% ahead of analyst estimates and lifting guidance.

Third-quarter sales rose 6% to 79.19 billion Danish kroner ($11.9 billion), 8% ahead of analyst estimates, according to FactSet. Operating profit fell 3% on the quarter but also beat projections. The 102-year-old Danish drugmaker's stock still traded at roughly one-quarter of its 2024 peak.

Alphavalue's research team said: “Overall, these results should provide some relief for Novo’s beleaguered investors.”

The team added: “The firm may return to a better growth from 2027 onwards and we see promising obesity/diabetes assets in Novo’s pipeline as well, however, Novo’s management in on the clock to diversify its offerings and avoid any patent cliff situation when Wegovy/Ozempic lose patents from 2031 onwards.”

What changed in Novo Nordisk's 2026 outlook?

Novo Nordisk cited strong uptake of its Wegovy weight-loss pill, launched this year, and “increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales.” The company tied the higher outlook to the new formulation and to performance across its GLP-1 portfolio.

Each measure in the revised outlook was about three percentage points above Wall Street expectations entering the third-quarter report. At the start of the year, Novo Nordisk had warned that profits could fall between 5% and 13%. The revision now permits adjusted operating profit growth of up to 2%, while its -2% floor still allows a decline.

The upgrade linked two pieces of evidence: the pill's early uptake and higher expectations for the wider GLP-1 portfolio. Novo Nordisk can offset pressure in injectable diabetes with stronger sales from the new formulation even when injectable products decline. That mix explains how a quarterly sales beat could support a higher full-year profit outlook.

How much did the Wegovy pill contribute?

The Wegovy pill accounted for 5.39 billion Danish kroner in sales. That was about one-quarter of the sales generated by its injectable Wegovy counterpart. The contribution came from a product launched this year, and its uptake underpinned the company's higher expectations for GLP-1 product sales.

The pill did not erase pressure on Novo Nordisk's injectable diabetes business. Products including Ozempic generated 29.81 billion Danish kroner of sales, down 5% year over year. Alphavalue analysts blamed that decline on pricing pressure and intense competition from Eli Lilly.

Why is Novo Nordisk changing finance leadership?

Novo Nordisk said chief financial officer Karsten Munk Knudsen will step down. Luigi La Corte, previously of Swiss pharmaceutical company Galderma, will replace him. The announcement came with stronger sales and higher guidance, but pricing pressure, a shrinking injectable business and patent risk complicated the company's path back to growth.

What has to change before the 2031 patent cliff?

Alphavalue sees a possible return to better growth from 2027 and promising obesity and diabetes assets in Novo Nordisk's pipeline. The research firm also says management must diversify its offerings and avoid a patent cliff when Wegovy and Ozempic lose patents from 2031 onward.

For investors, the immediate test is whether the Wegovy pill can scale fast enough to offset continued pressure on injectable diabetes products. The pill must become a larger commercial counterweight, while newer pipeline assets provide another source of growth and the new finance chief oversees the transition.

Novo Nordisk's third-quarter numbers support a recovery case, not yet a durable one. Sales beat estimates and guidance improved, but operating profit fell and the stock remains near one-quarter of its 2024 peak. The company still needs the new formulation, pipeline products and portfolio diversification to rebuild growth before patent losses begin from 2031 onward.

The revised range is an improvement from the early-year profit warning. Yet it still straddles zero, which makes product mix and execution central to the next results.