NVIDIA Shares’ 31% Drop Puts $164.27 in the Spotlight

By Nathan Brooks

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares have fallen roughly 31% from their October peak of $243.37 to a 52-week low of $164.27, according to Abirstock’s TradingView chart.

Abirstock describes the selloff as unfolding over the past few weeks. The chart’s $79.10 gap between those markers translates into a loss of more than $79 per share from the October peak.

A broken chart structure

Abirstock says shares broke below the $190 support level before reaching $164.27. The stock has continued to form lower highs and lower lows, which the chart reads as a sign that sellers remain in control.

Trading volume also increased sharply during the decline. Abirstock interprets that activity as investors actively reducing their positions rather than simply holding through a quiet pullback.

Abirstock’s chart therefore presents a bearish setup, not a confirmed bottom. NVIDIA remains one of the biggest players in the AI industry, the analysis notes, but that sector position has not insulated shares from the recent selling.

Three sources of uncertainty

Abirstock points to uncertainty following the U.S. midterm elections. The chart says this uncertainty has raised questions about future data-center regulations and the pace of AI infrastructure spending.

The analysis also cites controversy surrounding NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang and reports of congressional scrutiny. It does not attach revenue figures, spending estimates or a policy timetable to either point.

For investors tracking AI infrastructure, the practical issue is whether regulatory uncertainty and questions about spending pace persist. That puts policy and spending on the same risk checklist as momentum and volume.

What does this change for investors?

Abirstock says buyers have started showing interest around $164.27, making it the level to watch. A hold above that area could support a rebound toward $181–$186, the chart’s first recovery range.

Using the chart’s levels, that rebound would recover $16.73 to $21.73 per share from the low. It would still leave NVIDIA below the broken $190 support marker, so Abirstock treats it as a possible bounce rather than proof of a durable reversal.

The $164.27 area becomes a near-term risk marker. A break below it could leave shares vulnerable to further losses, while holding it gives buyers the setup Abirstock says they are watching.

The evidence required for a bottom

Regaining $190 would be a much stronger sign that selling pressure is starting to fade, Abirstock says. A sustained move above that level would make the recovery case more convincing than a brief bounce from $164.27.

The distinction addresses the chart’s central question. Abirstock titled the analysis: "NVIDIA Stock Drops 31% From Its Peak. Is $164 the Bottom?" The analysis itself stops short of calling one.

A bounce from a 52-week low can be encouraging, Abirstock notes, but it does not mean the stock has found a bottom. Investors still need NVIDIA to hold $164.27 and then sustain a move above $190 to strengthen the recovery case.

The next trading test

For now, Abirstock frames $164.27 as the immediate reference level and $190 as the more consequential recovery threshold. The first offers a possible entry near the low; the second would show selling pressure losing force.

The near-term setup remains conditional. If buyers keep NVIDIA above $164.27, the chart points to $181–$186. If shares break lower, the same analysis leaves room for further losses and assigns no lower target.

The next test is whether buyers can defend $164.27 long enough for NVIDIA to reclaim $190. Until then, Abirstock’s chart identifies a possible bounce, not a confirmed bottom.