Nvidia Traders Bet on Huang's Exit as Second Affair Report Surfaces

Kalshi traders are now running a market on when Jensen Huang will leave Nvidia, as reports of a second affair push the CEO's ouster from speculation toward probability. Nvidia's stock sank Wednesday while global markets finished mixed, and the question hanging over the B20 USA Summit in Washington this week was blunt: can Nvidia survive without Jensen Huang?

The summit, hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, drew leaders from 19 member countries plus the European Union and African Union, alongside executives hunting for investments and cross-border connections. The mood was cautiously optimistic. Attendees hope the midterms will deliver a more predictable policy climate and that Washington's infatuation with tech titans might settle into a healthier relationship.

How much does Huang's departure actually cost Nvidia?

Huang's exit would hit Nvidia's talent, sales, reputation and revenue, which — combined with fines and lawsuits — could make the falling stock price a new normal, per Fortune's reporting. But executives in Washington argued the damage is already done.

"With or without him, this is a mess," said one CEO customer in D.C., who now worries about the security of his company's data. "You can't lead a company with your back against a wall."

There's precedent for survival. Apple kept growing after Steve Jobs died, and Uber has thrived since founder Travis Kalanick resigned under pressure almost a decade ago. Still, the revelations of recent days have people reassessing their view of Nvidia's CEO.

What did the summit say about AI oversight?

The broader backdrop is an industry under scrutiny. AI companies have faced fears spanning rogue behavior, security threats, IP theft, energy use, job loss, an investment bubble, opaque financing and distrust of the tech leaders controlling it.

Campbell Brown, CEO of Forum AI and a former CNN anchor who once led global media partnerships at Meta, put it sharply during an on-stage conversation: AI companies "grade their own homework and give themselves an A." Her company is trying to fix that by leveraging human expertise to evaluate, compare and train AI models on issues from geopolitics to gender bias.

The most persistent theme in Washington was the need for regulatory oversight and clarity. Frédéric Sanchez of the French industrial engineering group F5 firm Fives called the risk-factors section of Anthropic's IPO prospectus a "science fiction book" that's "scaring" people — and said neither the U.S. nor Europe has produced the right policy response.

Rich Lesser of BCG floated the idea of an FDA-style regulatory agency able to absorb new insights, risks and guardrails as AI develops. Sim Tshabalala, CEO of Standard Bank and head of Africa's largest bank from Johannesburg, pressed for stronger institutions and laws so the world's youngest and fastest-growing continent can leverage AI for agriculture, health, education and growth.

Is AI actually delivering for business?

Away from the Huang drama, the enterprise story keeps strengthening. AI is moving from frontier labs into companies, and a recent Deloitte survey found 81% of global leaders say it's improving the speed of decision-making and execution.

The betting market adds a market-based check on the leadership question. Kalshi traders are pricing when Huang will leave Nvidia, and Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour discussed how that market is working in an on-stage interview at the B20.

In another leadership story this week, Airbnb's Brian Chesky announced a $100 million gift.

For Nvidia, the calculus is now twofold: whether the board ousts Huang as the second affair report compounds board scrutiny, and whether the company's customers stick around through the fines, lawsuits and reputational drag that follow either outcome.