Nvidia’s 10% Slide Puts Three Trading Levels in Focus

NVIDIA Corporation shares have lost more than 10% over the short term, according to a FOREXcom TradingView analysis written by market analyst Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT. Since the beginning of last week, the stock traded below $200 and reached prices not seen since the final days of April, Pineda said. The FOREXcom TradingView chart tracks the shares as BATS:NVDA.

Pineda attributes part of the weakness to last week's Democratic victory. He said the result increased concerns about a potentially more restrictive U.S. regulatory environment for the artificial intelligence industry.

He also cited recent reports that an investigation had been launched after claims that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence operation. Pineda said the combination could weigh on Nvidia's growth outlook while raising new concerns about the company's internal environment.

Pineda treats the two developments as compounding forces. Regulatory uncertainty weighs on the environment for Nvidia's AI growth, while the reported operation against Huang raises a separate concern about the company itself.

What changed in Nvidia's short-term setup?

Over the past several sessions, Nvidia's weakness broke below the long-term bullish trendline that had dominated price action for months, Pineda said. The stock now trades near what he called some of the chart's most important lows.

Pineda said the position could gradually pave the way for a new short-term bearish trendline to become the dominant technical structure in the weeks ahead. In his framework, the months-long bullish structure has ended, while a new bearish line remains a developing possibility rather than a fully established trend over the coming weeks.

What do MACD and RSI show?

The MACD histogram continues to develop well below the 0 neutral line, Pineda wrote. He described the position as a meaningful bearish dynamic within short-term moving averages.

Pineda wrote: “As long as this reading remains in place, selling pressure could continue to dominate price action during the coming sessions.”

The continuation case is conditional in Pineda's analysis: while the MACD remains below zero, selling pressure could keep dominating price action. A recovery in the histogram would remove one support for that immediate bearish case.

The RSI is also below its neutrality level. It has moved close to the 30 oversold threshold, a reading Pineda said had not occurred in several months.

Pineda also wrote: “This situation may begin to signal an excessive amount of recent selling pressure and could eventually open the door to short-term bullish corrections.”

The two indicators create a split setup in Pineda's analysis. Momentum remains bearish while the RSI suggests recent selling may be excessive and a short-term bullish correction could follow.

Which price levels matter?

Pineda's chart gives three price levels for the next phase.

• $195 — Key resistance. Pineda called this the chart's most important upside barrier. It sits near the psychological $200 area and the 200-period simple moving average. A return toward $195 could show a pronounced lack of direction and favor a broader range-bound phase over the coming weeks.
• $181 — Near-term barrier. Pineda described this as an important retracement area and the closest level to monitor if short-term bullish corrections emerge.
• $166 — Critical support. Pineda tied this level to Nvidia's most important lows of 2026. Trading around or below $166 could mark a significant shift in market structure and open the way to a more established bearish trend in the coming weeks.

Over the next sessions, Pineda's setup makes the MACD reading and three price levels the decisive tests. If the histogram stays below zero, his base case remains continued selling pressure. A move toward $195 would point to range trading, a retreat toward $181 would mark a bullish correction, and consolidation at or below $166 would strengthen the emerging bearish trend.