On Holding Unveils $1 Billion Buyback and CHF 5.6 Billion 2029 Sales Target

On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) authorized its first share buyback, worth up to $1 billion, and set a 2029 net sales target of at least CHF 5.6 billion at its investor day in Zurich on September 22. The shares rose almost 9%.

The Swiss sportswear maker's new long-term plan assumes a high-teens annual growth rate in constant currency through 2029. Nothing in this year's outlook changed. On still expects constant currency sales growth in the low 20s and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 20%. By 2029 it is targeting at least 22%.

Growth and Margin Are Meant to Rise Together

The targets are unusual for a company at this stage. Brands growing this fast usually pour the gain back into marketing and store openings, which holds margins flat for years. On is telling investors it can hold growth in the high teens for three more years and lift its adjusted EBITDA margin by at least two points while doing it. Founder and co-chief executive Caspar Coppetti put it plainly, saying top-line and margin expansion "are not in conflict."

On is also telling investors it will out-earn its own spending plans. The buyback is the company's first. A company committing $1 billion to repurchases while funding two new sports categories is betting operating cash flow covers both. Most brands growing this fast reinvest in stores and marketing instead. Chief financial officer Frank Sluis described the outlook as establishing On as "a high-quality earnings compounder."

On names running, sneakers and apparel as its growth pillars, with football and golf as new entries. Running and sneakers cannot carry high-teens growth on their own. Apparel is the one to watch, because On sells far less of it than its larger rivals do.

The channel it sells through matters as much as the category. On has not said how it will take football and golf to market, and leaning on wholesale partners would put pressure on the margin the 2029 target depends on.

A 2029 Target Is a Long Promise in a Fast Market

The plan leaves no room for error. On is already absorbing tariffs, and its guidance excludes up to $65 million of tariff refunds it expects but has not yet received.

Its momentum also depends on staying premium while Nike works through inventory and Adidas pushes hard on lifestyle. The target is set in Swiss francs while much of the revenue arrives in dollars and euros, so a stronger franc makes CHF 5.6 billion harder to reach even if demand holds.

The near-term picture is also softer than the headline. The company guided to constant currency growth of around 17% in the third quarter, below the low 20s it expects for the year. Growth is already slowing as the comparisons get harder, and the 2029 plan asks it to settle at high teens rather than fall further.

That is the wager investors priced at almost 9% higher: On must hold premium positioning against Nike and Adidas, absorb tariffs, and beat currency drag to deliver both the CHF 5.6 billion top line and the $1 billion returned to shareholders.